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Capital FC vs Araguaina

Brazil Brazil

Tocantinense 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Paulo M.
(Penalty)
47' Event
Freitas K.
86' Event
Paulo M.

AI Match Summary

Capital FC host Araguaina in the Tocantinense 2025. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Capital FC have averaged 1.33 scored and 2 conceded recently, against Araguaina's 1.38 scored and 0.75 conceded. Head-to-head, Capital FC have won 3 to Araguaina's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Jan 17, 2026, ending 1:1. Model xG sits at 1.04 vs 1.69, favoring Araguaina. Araguaina in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Capital FC
17%
Draws
70%
Araguaina
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Araguaina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Araguaina has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Capital FC.
  • Model forecasts a 70% win probability edge for Araguaina.
  • Cup tournament structure in Tocantinense 2025 increases high-stakes performance focus.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Capital FC Clean Sheet 13%
Araguaina Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Capital FC Araguaina
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 11
Draws 5 8
Losses 16 11
Goals Scored 1.33 1.38
Goals Conceded 2 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.33 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 17, 2026 Tocantinense
Capital FC vs Araguaina
1:1
Mar 23, 2025 Tocantinense
Capital FC vs Araguaina
0:3
Mar 18, 2025 Tocantinense
Araguaina vs Capital FC
1:2
Mar 15, 2025 Tocantinense
Capital FC vs Araguaina
1:0
Jan 30, 2024 Tocantinense
Araguaina vs Capital FC
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Capital FC Compare

Avg xG / game 1.02
Avg xA / game 0.67

Araguaina Compare

Top Goalscorer Freitas K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Paulo M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Capital FC 14 / 100
Araguaina 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Capital FC Araguaina

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ARA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Capital FC scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Araguaina let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Capital FC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Araguaina lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Capital FC VS Araguaina
1.33 Goals Scored 1.38
2 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 38%
33% Over 3.5 13%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Capital FC2
Araguaina4
Gurupi1
Tocantinopolis2
Final
Araguaina3
Tocantinopolis2