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Capital FC vs Araguaina

Brazil Brazil

Tocantinense 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
Rivaldo
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

Capital FC in this Tocantinense 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Capital FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Capital FC
17%
Draws
70%
Araguaina
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Araguaina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Araguaina have won more games recently than Capital FC.
  • 70% — that's where the model lands on Araguaina taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Capital FC Clean Sheet 13%
Araguaina Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Capital FC Araguaina
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 11
Draws 5 8
Losses 16 11
Goals Scored 1.33 1.38
Goals Conceded 2 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.33 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 17, 2026 Tocantinense
Capital FC vs Araguaina
1:1
Mar 23, 2025 Tocantinense
Capital FC vs Araguaina
0:3
Mar 18, 2025 Tocantinense
Araguaina vs Capital FC
1:2
Mar 15, 2025 Tocantinense
Capital FC vs Araguaina
1:0
Jan 30, 2024 Tocantinense
Araguaina vs Capital FC
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Capital FC 14 / 100
Araguaina 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Capital FC Araguaina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ARA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Capital FC found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Araguaina has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Solid form: Capital FC remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Capital FC VS Araguaina
1.33 Goals Scored 1.38
2 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 38%
33% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Capital FC

(Home)
21 Mar
Tocantinopolis
2 : 2
Capital FC
14 Mar
Capital FC
1 : 2
Tocantinopolis
07 Mar
Tocantinopolis
2 : 1
Capital FC
04 Mar
Capital FC
1 : 2
Manaus FC
21 Feb
Capital FC
1 : 1
Palmas
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Araguaina

(Away)
28 Jun
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
0 : 0
Araguaina
21 Jun
Araguaina
0 : 1
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
14 Jun
Araguaina
9 : 0
Galvez
30 May
Guapore
3 : 2
Araguaina
24 May
Araguaina
1 : 1
Porto Velho
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tocantinopolis751115:616
2Capital FC75028:415
3Araguaina73139:710
4Gurupi72419:510
5Uniao Carmolandense73137:127
6Bela Vista-TO72147:117
7Batalhao713312:116
8Tocantins71154:154
Promotion - Tocantinense 2025 (Play Offs)