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Capivariano vs Sao Jose EC

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Capivariano play Sao Jose EC in the Paulista A3 2023. It looks like a close match. Recently, Capivariano averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1 conceded. Sao Jose EC averaged 1.32 goals scored and 1 conceded. In past meetings, Capivariano won 2, Sao Jose EC won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 1, 2025 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.50 for Capivariano and 1.75 for Sao Jose EC. This points to a Capivariano double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Capivariano
15%
Draws
40%
Sao Jose EC
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Capivariano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Capivariano picked up more points recently compared to Sao Jose EC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.50 vs 1.75 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 59%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39%
Capivariano Clean Sheet 12%
Sao Jose EC Clean Sheet 23%
First Half Goal 53%
Second Half Goal 56%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Capivariano Sao Jose EC
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 15 14
Draws 6 5
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.17 1.32
Goals Conceded 1 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2025 Paulista A2
Capivariano vs Sao Jose EC
1:0
Jan 27, 2024 Paulista A2
Sao Jose EC vs Capivariano
1:0
May 13, 2023 Paulista A3
Capivariano vs Sao Jose EC
3:0
May 6, 2023 Paulista A3
Sao Jose EC vs Capivariano
1:0
Mar 4, 2023 Paulista A3
Capivariano vs Sao Jose EC
0:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Capivariano 43 / 100
Sao Jose EC 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Capivariano Sao Jose EC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Capivariano or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.7%
2.63
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Capivariano attacking → ← attacking Sao Jose EC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Capivariano scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Sao Jose EC let in goals in 77% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Capivariano went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Sao Jose EC lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

51 Points in last 5 47
0.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.50