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Carapinheirense vs Vitoria Sernache

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group E 2020/2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group E 2020/2021 game between Carapinheirense and Vitoria Sernache finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Carapinheirense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Carapinheirense
40%
Draws
29%
Vitoria Sernache
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Vitoria Sernache come out ahead of Carapinheirense on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 18%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Carapinheirense Clean Sheet 20%
Vitoria Sernache Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carapinheirense Vitoria Sernache
Matches Played 29 37
Wins 7 19
Draws 10 12
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 0 0.88
Goals Conceded 0 0.5

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2021 Campeonato de Portugal - Group E
Carapinheirense vs Vitoria Sernache
3:2
Oct 18, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group E
Vitoria Sernache vs Carapinheirense
1:1
Apr 2, 2017 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Vitoria Sernache vs Carapinheirense
1:1
Feb 12, 2017 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Carapinheirense vs Vitoria Sernache
1:1
Dec 4, 2016 Campeonato de Portugal - Group E
Vitoria Sernache vs Carapinheirense
1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carapinheirense 32 / 100
Vitoria Sernache 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carapinheirense Vitoria Sernache

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Carapinheirense found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Carapinheirense remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Vitoria Sernache's defensive record shows goals conceded in 46% of 37 matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Vitoria Sernache
0 Goals Scored 0.88
0 Goals Conceded 0.5
0% Over 1.5 38%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Leiria20145134:947
2Oliveira Hospital2097424:1934
3SB Castelo Branco2088421:1432
4Condeixa2078518:1729
5Marinhense2084823:2128
6Oleiros2068628:2726
7Carapinheirense2056921:2621
8Sertanense2049722:2421
9Vitoria Sernache2056925:2821
10Alcains2038914:3417
11Mortagua FC20111815:2614
12GRAP / Grupo Recreativo Amigos Da Paz00000:00