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Caravaca vs Minerva

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Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2025/2026
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Match Events

25' Event
Morete
55' Event
Morete
73' Event
Morete

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2025/2026 game between Caravaca and Minerva finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Caravaca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Caravaca
30%
Draws
41%
Minerva
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Minerva

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Minerva carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Caravaca's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Caravaca have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Caravaca Clean Sheet 68%
Minerva Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caravaca Minerva
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 5 12
Draws 12 7
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 0.93 0.77
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Caravaca vs Minerva
3:0
Nov 23, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Minerva vs Caravaca
1:0
Feb 2, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Caravaca vs Minerva
1:0
Sep 22, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Minerva vs Caravaca
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caravaca Compare

Top Goalscorer Morete
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Minerva Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caravaca 77 / 100
Minerva 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caravaca Minerva

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caravaca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caravaca's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Caravaca stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Minerva let in goals in 55% of their last 31 matches.

Scoring Trends

Caravaca VS Minerva
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Caravaca

(Home)
09 May
Bala Azul
2 : 4
Caravaca
03 May
Caravaca
0 : 1
Club Olimpico de Totana
25 Apr
FC Cartagena SAD B
0 : 0
Caravaca
19 Apr
Caravaca
1 : 1
Real Murcia B
12 Apr
Yeclano B
3 : 1
Caravaca
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Minerva

(Away)
20 Sept
San Javier
1 : 0
Minerva
13 Sept
Minerva
0 : 0
FC Cartagena SAD B
06 Sept
Deportivo Maritimo
0 : 1
Minerva
10 May
Minerva
3 : 2
E.G. El Palmar
03 May
Deportivo Maritimo
4 : 0
Minerva
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ciudad Cieza 34 21 10 3 65:21 73
2 Real Murcia B 34 17 8 9 59:44 59
3 Molinense 34 17 8 9 46:34 59
4 Club Olimpico de Totana 34 15 13 6 44:27 58
5 Mazarron FC 34 14 14 6 50:33 56
6 UCAM Murcia B 34 13 16 5 55:37 55
7 Aguilas FC B 34 14 10 10 47:42 52
8 CA Pulpileno 34 13 11 10 30:29 50
9 Santa Cruz 34 14 6 14 35:37 48
10 Minerva 34 11 11 12 28:39 44
11 Bala Azul 34 8 16 10 39:36 40
12 FC Cartagena SAD B 34 9 11 14 40:39 38
13 Deportivo Maritimo 34 9 9 16 38:46 36
14 E.G. El Palmar 34 8 8 18 27:48 32
15 Santomera 34 8 8 18 38:64 32
16 Caravaca 34 6 13 15 33:44 31
17 Muleno CF 34 6 13 15 33:58 31
18 Yeclano B 34 6 9 19 25:54 27
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2025/2026 (Play Offs)