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Caravaggio vs Adriese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group C 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Gnago Y. G.
26' Event
Serena R.
(Penalty)
90' Event
Reinero A.

AI Match Summary

Adriese in this Serie D - Group C 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Adriese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Caravaggio
20%
Draws
0%
Adriese
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Caravaggio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Adriese have won more games recently than Caravaggio.
  • Caravaggio are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Caravaggio Clean Sheet 20%
Adriese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caravaggio Adriese
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 6 8
Draws 6 4
Losses 18 22
Goals Scored 1.13 0.85
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.76
Expected Goals (xG) 1.85 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 11, 2025 Serie D - Group C
Caravaggio vs Adriese
1:2
Sep 14, 2024 Serie D - Group C
Adriese vs Caravaggio
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caravaggio Compare

Top Goalscorer Reinero A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.93

Adriese Compare

Top Goalscorer Gnago Y. G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.48

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caravaggio 85 / 100
Adriese 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caravaggio Adriese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caravaggio Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Adriese lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Caravaggio found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Adriese let in goals in 79% of their last 34 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

- VS Adriese
0 Goals Scored 0.63
0 Goals Conceded 2.5
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Caravaggio

(Home)
17 May
Caravaggio
2 : 3
Ciserano-Bergamo
04 May
Caravaggio
0 : 3
Luparense FC
27 Apr
Real Calepina
0 : 1
Caravaggio
17 Apr
Caravaggio
0 : 0
Brusaporto
13 Apr
Brian Lignano
2 : 2
Caravaggio
Page 1 of 6

Adriese

(Away)
03 May
Adriese
0 : 4
Brian Lignano
26 Apr
Clodiense
2 : 1
Adriese
19 Apr
Adriese
0 : 1
Campodarsego
11 Apr
Calvi Noale
2 : 0
Adriese
02 Apr
Adriese
0 : 2
Cjarlins Muzane
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dolomiti Bellunesi 38 23 9 6 65:39 78
2 Treviso 38 22 8 8 59:32 74
3 Villa Valle 38 19 10 9 62:44 67
4 Adriese 38 18 12 8 55:31 66
5 Mestre 38 19 7 12 40:34 64
6 Campodarsego 38 15 17 6 52:36 62
7 Brusaporto 38 16 12 10 46:37 60
8 Luparense FC 38 13 17 8 48:36 56
9 Real Calepina 38 15 10 13 44:44 55
10 Cjarlins Muzane 38 15 10 13 50:49 55
11 Este 38 14 12 12 50:50 54
12 Brian Lignano 38 12 12 14 45:49 48
13 Calvi Noale 38 12 11 15 44:44 47
14 Bassano Virtus 38 11 14 13 43:36 47
15 Portogruaro 38 10 16 12 32:36 46
16 Caravaggio 38 11 8 19 42:54 41
17 Ciserano-Bergamo 38 9 13 16 42:55 40
18 Chions 38 6 12 20 35:59 30
19 Montecchio Maggiore 38 6 9 23 32:55 27
20 Lavis 38 3 3 32 25:91 12
Promotion - Serie D - Group C 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group C 2024/2025 (Play Out)