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Caravaggio vs Chions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group C 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

64' Event
Zazzi F.
(Penalty)
81' Event
Valenta E.
(Penalty)
90' Event
Pinton F.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group C 2024/2025 game between Caravaggio and Chions finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Chions.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Caravaggio
30%
Draws
31%
Chions
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Caravaggio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Caravaggio carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group C 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Caravaggio Clean Sheet 18%
Chions Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caravaggio Chions
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 5
Draws 6 10
Losses 18 15
Goals Scored 1.13 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 2, 2025 Serie D - Group C
Caravaggio vs Chions
1:2
Oct 27, 2024 Serie D - Group C
Chions vs Caravaggio
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caravaggio Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Chions Compare

Top Goalscorer Pinton F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caravaggio 36 / 100
Chions 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caravaggio Chions

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chions Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chions let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Caravaggio found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Caravaggio went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Caravaggio VS Chions
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Caravaggio

(Home)
17 May
Caravaggio
2 : 3
Ciserano-Bergamo
04 May
Caravaggio
0 : 3
Luparense FC
27 Apr
Real Calepina
0 : 1
Caravaggio
17 Apr
Caravaggio
0 : 0
Brusaporto
13 Apr
Brian Lignano
2 : 2
Caravaggio
Page 1 of 6

Chions

(Away)
04 May
Chions
2 : 1
Calvi Noale
27 Apr
Brusaporto
3 : 2
Chions
17 Apr
Chions
1 : 2
Brian Lignano
12 Apr
Dolomiti Bellunesi
3 : 1
Chions
06 Apr
Chions
1 : 1
Treviso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dolomiti Bellunesi 38 23 9 6 65:39 78
2 Treviso 38 22 8 8 59:32 74
3 Villa Valle 38 19 10 9 62:44 67
4 Adriese 38 18 12 8 55:31 66
5 Mestre 38 19 7 12 40:34 64
6 Campodarsego 38 15 17 6 52:36 62
7 Brusaporto 38 16 12 10 46:37 60
8 Luparense FC 38 13 17 8 48:36 56
9 Real Calepina 38 15 10 13 44:44 55
10 Cjarlins Muzane 38 15 10 13 50:49 55
11 Este 38 14 12 12 50:50 54
12 Brian Lignano 38 12 12 14 45:49 48
13 Calvi Noale 38 12 11 15 44:44 47
14 Bassano Virtus 38 11 14 13 43:36 47
15 Portogruaro 38 10 16 12 32:36 46
16 Caravaggio 38 11 8 19 42:54 41
17 Ciserano-Bergamo 38 9 13 16 42:55 40
18 Chions 38 6 12 20 35:59 30
19 Montecchio Maggiore 38 6 9 23 32:55 27
20 Lavis 38 3 3 32 25:91 12
Promotion - Serie D - Group C 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group C 2024/2025 (Play Out)