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Caravaggio vs Tubarao

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

51' Event
Nayssinho M. V.
64' Event
Luiz da Silva Paiva D.
90' Event
Kaio Almeida Batista H.

AI Match Summary

Caravaggio in this Catarinense 2 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Caravaggio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Caravaggio
11%
Draws
9%
Tubarao
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Caravaggio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Caravaggio have won more games recently than Tubarao.
  • Model gives Caravaggio a 80% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Catarinense 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Caravaggio Clean Sheet 68%
Tubarao Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caravaggio Tubarao
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 15 10
Draws 4 9
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 2.75 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 15, 2026 Catarinense 2
Caravaggio vs Tubarao
2:1
May 24, 2026 Catarinense 2
Tubarao vs Caravaggio
2:2
Oct 5, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Caravaggio vs Tubarao
0:3
Sep 14, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Tubarao vs Caravaggio
1:2
Jul 14, 2024 Catarinense 2
Tubarao vs Caravaggio
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caravaggio Compare

Top Goalscorer Luiz da Silva Paiva D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kaio Almeida Batista H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38

Tubarao Compare

Top Goalscorer Nayssinho M. V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caravaggio 86 / 100
Tubarao 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caravaggio Tubarao

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Caravaggio scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Solid form: Caravaggio remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Tubarao let in goals in 55% of their last 31 matches.

Scoring Trends

Caravaggio VS Tubarao
2.75 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Caravaggio

(Home)
15 Jul
Caravaggio
2 : 1
Tubarao
12 Jul
Caravaggio
9 : 0
Jaragua-SC
05 Jul
CA Metropolitano
2 : 1
Caravaggio
28 Jun
Caravaggio
2 : 3
Guarani de Palhoca
24 Jun
Blumenau
1 : 2
Caravaggio
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Tubarao

(Away)
15 Jul
Caravaggio
2 : 1
Tubarao
12 Jul
Tubarao
2 : 3
CA Metropolitano
05 Jul
Tubarao
1 : 0
Nacao
01 Jul
Jaragua-SC
0 : 3
Tubarao
21 Jun
Gremio Juventus
0 : 2
Tubarao
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hercilio Luz15112231:935
2Caravaggio1593342:1730
3CA Metropolitano1592425:1729
4Blumenau1583431:1227
5Tubarao1565422:1523
6Fluminense-SC1553714:1818
7Nacao1545614:2217
8Guarani de Palhoca1544714:2316
9Gremio Juventus1542913:2114
10Jaragua-SC1501145:571
Promotion - Catarinense 2027 (Main)
Relegation - Catarinense 3 2027 (Main)