Sport Picks
Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau Ely - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Wales
Cymru South 
Match Events
3'
3'
Harling L.
9'
9'
Bishop L.
Penalty Missed
50'
50'
Harling L.
AI Match Summary
The Cymru South game between Cardiff Draconians and Caerau Ely finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Caerau Ely.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
32%
20%
48%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Caerau Ely
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
48%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Caerau Ely come out ahead of Cardiff Draconians on wins alone.
- Caerau Ely are the model's pick here, at 50%.
- Regular Cymru South form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Caerau Ely have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Cardiff Draconians Clean Sheet 10%
Caerau Ely Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Cardiff Draconians | Caerau Ely |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 17 |
| Draws | 5 | 6 |
| Losses | 14 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.61 | 2.28 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.79 | 1.14 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.69 | 2.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 26, 2026 Cymru South
Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau Ely
1:3
Jan 2, 2026 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Cardiff Draconians
2:1
Aug 16, 2025 Cymru South
Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau Ely
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Cardiff Draconians Compare
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84
Caerau Ely Compare
Top Goalscorer Harling L.
2 Goals Assists Leader Bahumaid J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Cardiff Draconians 22 / 100
Caerau Ely 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Cardiff Draconians Caerau Ely
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Caerau Ely Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Cardiff Draconians scored in 79% of their last 28 outings.
Games between these two average 2.67 goals.
Cardiff Draconians went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Defensive concern: Caerau Ely conceded in 55% of 29 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Cardiff Draconians VS Caerau Ely
2 Goals Scored 2.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Cardiff Draconians
(Home) 31 Oct
Cardiff Draconians
2 : 0 Afan Lido
23 Oct
Trethomas Bluebirds
3 : 1 Cardiff Draconians
17 Oct
Radnor Valley
1 : 3 Cardiff Draconians
10 Oct
Cardiff Draconians
2 : 2 Carmarthen Town
03 Oct
Cardiff Draconians
1 : 1 Newport City
Page 1 of 6
31 Oct
Cardiff Draconians
2 : 0 Afan Lido
10 Oct
Cardiff Draconians
2 : 2 Carmarthen Town
03 Oct
Cardiff Draconians
1 : 1 Newport City
26 Sept
Cardiff Draconians
1 : 3 Caerau Ely
12 Sept
Cardiff Draconians
2 : 1 Baglan Dragons
Page 1 of 4
Caerau Ely
(Away) 30 Oct
Caerphilly
0 : 1 Caerau Ely
23 Oct
Caerau Ely
0 : 2 Llantwit Major
16 Oct
Caerau Ely
6 : 0 Llanelli
10 Oct
Aberystwyth
0 : 1 Caerau Ely
02 Oct
Caerau Ely
2 : 0 Afan Lido
Page 1 of 6
30 Oct
Caerphilly
0 : 1 Caerau Ely
10 Oct
Aberystwyth
0 : 1 Caerau Ely
26 Sept
Cardiff Draconians
1 : 3 Caerau Ely
28 Aug
Baglan Dragons
3 : 1 Caerau Ely
14 Aug
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 4 Caerau Ely
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pontypridd United | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 35:22 | 27 |
| 2 | Aberystwyth | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 24:10 | 22 |
| 3 | Caerau Ely | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 24:23 | 22 |
| 4 | Pure Swansea | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 32:15 | 21 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 14:14 | 20 |
| 6 | Ynyshir Albions | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 20:13 | 19 |
| 7 | Afan Lido | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 24:26 | 18 |
| 8 | Treowen | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 22:23 | 17 |
| 9 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 24:21 | 16 |
| 10 | Carmarthen Town | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 24:26 | 15 |
| 11 | Pontardawe | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 20:21 | 14 |
| 12 | Caerphilly | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 17:24 | 14 |
| 13 | Newport City | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 21:17 | 13 |
| 14 | Cardiff Draconians | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14:17 | 12 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12:24 | 11 |
| 16 | Llanelli | 14 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 12:43 | 3 |
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)
