Sport Picks

Wales

Cymru South

Caerau Ely

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Cardiff Draconians host Caerau Ely in the Cymru South. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Recent numbers: Cardiff Draconians at 1.8 goals for, 1.8 against; Caerau Ely at 2.37 for, 1.49 against. Head-to-head, Cardiff Draconians have won 0 to Caerau Ely's 2, with 0 draws. They last met on Jan 2, 2026, ending 2:1. Model xG sits at 1.26 vs 1.55, favoring Caerau Ely. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%

Cardiff Draconians

15%

Draws

48%

Caerau Ely

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Caerau Ely

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence

Look at the last few games and Caerau Ely come out ahead of Cardiff Draconians on wins alone.
Cardiff Draconians are the model's pick here, at 40%.
Regular Cymru South form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 32.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%

Cardiff Draconians Clean Sheet 15%

Caerau Ely Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Cardiff Draconians	Caerau Ely
Matches Played	30	35
Wins	12	18
Draws	4	7
Losses	14	10
Goals Scored	1.8	2.37
Goals Conceded	1.8	1.49
Expected Goals (xG)	1.26	1.55
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 2, 2026 Cymru South

Caerau Ely vs Cardiff Draconians

2:1

Aug 16, 2025 Cymru South

Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau Ely

0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cardiff Draconians 39 / 100

Caerau Ely 27 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Cardiff Draconians Caerau Ely

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cardiff Draconians Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cardiff Draconians scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Caerau Ely has conceded goals in 69% of their last 35 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Cardiff Draconians went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cardiff Draconians VS Caerau Ely

1.4 Goals Scored 1.5

1.6 Goals Conceded 1.13

60% Over 1.5 63%

60% Over 2.5 38%

40% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History