Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Cardiff Draconians vs Trefelin

Wales Wales

Cymru South 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Jones J.
28' Event
Bowen L.
63' Event
Bowen L.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru South 2025/2026 game between Cardiff Draconians and Trefelin finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Trefelin.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Cardiff Draconians
20%
Draws
10%
Trefelin
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Cardiff Draconians

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Trefelin carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Cardiff Draconians are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Trefelin have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Cardiff Draconians Clean Sheet 13%
Trefelin Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cardiff Draconians Trefelin
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 19
Draws 4 1
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 1.79 2.31
Goals Conceded 1.89 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 2.56 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Cymru South
Cardiff Draconians vs Trefelin
0:4
Mar 4, 2026 Cymru South
Trefelin vs Cardiff Draconians
3:1
Nov 29, 2025 FA Cup
Trefelin vs Cardiff Draconians
4:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cardiff Draconians Compare

Avg xG / game 1.97
Avg xA / game 1.28

Trefelin Compare

Top Goalscorer Bowen L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Jones J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cardiff Draconians 84 / 100
Trefelin 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cardiff Draconians Trefelin

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cardiff Draconians Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Cardiff Draconians's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: Cardiff Draconians stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Trefelin lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cardiff Draconians VS Trefelin
1.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 3.25
63% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Cardiff Draconians

(Home)
22 Aug
Cardiff Draconians
4 : 2
Llanelli
15 Aug
Cardiff Draconians
1 : 4
Pontypridd United
07 Aug
Caerphilly
0 : 0
Cardiff Draconians
01 Aug
Ynyshir Albions
1 : 0
Cardiff Draconians
18 Apr
Cardiff Draconians
4 : 1
Afan Lido
Page 1 of 6

Trefelin

(Away)
31 Aug
Haverfordwest
2 : 1
Trefelin
28 Aug
Trefelin
1 : 1
Ammanford Town
21 Aug
Trefelin
0 : 2
Caernarfon
14 Aug
Connahs Q.
6 : 0
Trefelin
07 Aug
Trefelin
0 : 4
Llandudno FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Trefelin 30 25 3 2 83:17 78
2 Cambrian United 30 24 4 2 75:20 76
3 Ammanford Town 30 17 9 4 49:26 60
4 Caerau Ely 30 17 6 7 66:34 57
5 Carmarthen Town 30 11 12 7 45:38 45
6 Aberystwyth 30 13 5 12 35:38 44
7 Cardiff Draconians 30 12 4 14 50:48 40
8 Llantwit Major 30 9 10 11 44:47 37
9 Treowen 30 10 7 13 51:63 37
10 Newport City 30 9 10 11 36:48 37
11 Pontypridd United 30 9 7 14 46:51 34
12 Afan Lido 30 9 3 18 32:57 30
13 Trethomas Bluebirds 30 6 11 13 45:62 29
14 Baglan Dragons 30 5 10 15 26:52 25
15 Ynyshir Albions 30 5 8 17 27:56 23
16 Cwmbran Celtic 30 1 7 22 25:78 10
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Main)