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Cardiff vs Burnley - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

Championship Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff
Sat, Nov 7, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Cardiff host Burnley in the Championship. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Cardiff have averaged 2.04 scored and 1.52 conceded recently, against Burnley's 1.11 scored and 2 conceded. Past meetings favor Burnley slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 23, 2025, ending 1:2. The numbers (1.75 xG vs 1.25) point toward Cardiff. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Cardiff
30%
Draws
23%
Burnley
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Cardiff

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Cardiff come out ahead of Burnley on wins alone.
  • Model gives Cardiff a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Cardiff Clean Sheet 19%
Burnley Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cardiff Burnley
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 11 2
Draws 8 9
Losses 8 16
Goals Scored 2.04 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.52 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 23, 2025 EFL Cup
Burnley vs Cardiff
1:2
Mar 4, 2025 Championship
Cardiff vs Burnley
1:2
Aug 17, 2024 Championship
Burnley vs Cardiff
5:0
May 8, 2023 Championship
Burnley vs Cardiff
3:0
Oct 1, 2022 Championship
Cardiff vs Burnley
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cardiff 85 / 100
Burnley 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cardiff Burnley

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cardiff Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Cardiff scored in 81% of their last 27 outings.

Burnley's defensive record shows goals conceded in 96% of 27 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Cardiff remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Cardiff VS Burnley
1.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Cardiff

(Home)
24 Oct
Cardiff
1 : 0
Birmingham
17 Oct
Middlesbrough
2 : 2
Cardiff
13 Oct
Cardiff
5 : 1
Watford
10 Oct
Blackburn
2 : 1
Cardiff
19 Sept
Cardiff
3 : 1
Charlton
Page 1 of 6

Burnley

(Away)
24 Oct
Lincoln City
4 : 1
Burnley
16 Oct
Burnley
1 : 2
Wolves
13 Oct
Burnley
2 : 2
Charlton
10 Oct
Watford
0 : 4
Burnley
19 Sept
Burnley
1 : 1
Derby
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Middlesbrough 12 7 4 1 27:17 25
2 Swansea 12 7 2 3 16:13 23
3 West Ham 12 6 4 2 32:15 22
4 Wolves 12 6 3 3 20:16 21
5 West Brom 12 6 3 3 16:13 21
6 Southampton 12 7 3 2 24:12 20
7 Birmingham 12 5 5 2 20:12 20
8 QPR 12 5 5 2 20:12 20
9 Stoke City 12 6 2 4 18:16 20
10 Blackburn 12 5 3 4 19:16 18
11 Portsmouth 12 5 3 4 16:15 18
12 Sheffield Utd 12 4 4 4 16:15 16
13 Millwall 12 4 3 5 19:20 15
14 Bristol City 12 4 3 5 12:15 15
15 Lincoln City 12 4 3 5 13:20 15
16 Cardiff 12 3 5 4 19:17 14
17 Wrexham 12 3 5 4 15:18 14
18 Bolton 12 4 2 6 16:23 14
19 Charlton 12 3 5 4 11:18 14
20 Norwich 12 4 0 8 20:22 12
21 Watford 12 3 2 7 10:20 11
22 Burnley 12 1 5 6 17:25 8
23 Derby 12 1 4 7 10:21 7
24 Preston 12 1 2 9 10:25 5
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)