Sport Picks
Match Events
21'
21'
Ashford C.
45'
45'
Colwill R.
46'
46'
Sub
Wright W. In: Clarke O.
Out: Wright W.
AI Match Summary
Cardiff in this EFL Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
12%
30%
58%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Swindon
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
58%
/ Medium Confidence
- Cardiff have won more games recently than Swindon.
- Swindon are the model's pick here, at 50%.
- Cardiff have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Cardiff, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 82%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Cardiff have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 82%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Cardiff Clean Sheet 13%
Swindon Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Cardiff | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 13 | 11 |
| Draws | 7 | 6 |
| Losses | 8 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 2.25 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.54 | 1.61 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.00 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 8, 2026 EFL Cup
Cardiff vs Swindon
3:2
Aug 12, 2025 EFL Cup
Cardiff vs Swindon
2:1
Jul 23, 2022 Club Friendly
Swindon vs Cardiff
2:4
Jan 1, 2003 League One
Cardiff vs Swindon
1:1
Aug 24, 2002 League One
Swindon vs Cardiff
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Cardiff Compare
Top Goalscorer Ashford C.
1 Goals Assists Leader Colwill R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1
Swindon Compare
Top Goalscorer Ehibhatiomhan P.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Cardiff 22 / 100
Swindon 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Cardiff Swindon
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Swindon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Cardiff scored in 82% of their last 28 games.
Swindon has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.
Games between these two average 3.40 goals.
Cardiff has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Cardiff VS Swindon
2.38 Goals Scored 1.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Cardiff
(Home) 05 Sept
Portsmouth
2 : 0 Cardiff
02 Sept
QPR
2 : 1 Cardiff
29 Aug
Cardiff
2 : 2 Sheffield Utd
25 Aug
Cardiff
1 : 2 Norwich
22 Aug
Derby
2 : 2 Cardiff
Page 1 of 6
29 Aug
Cardiff
2 : 2 Sheffield Utd
25 Aug
Cardiff
1 : 2 Norwich
17 Aug
Cardiff
1 : 1 Wrexham
08 Aug
Cardiff
3 : 2 Swindon
01 Aug
Cardiff
4 : 1 AS Roma
Page 1 of 3
Swindon
(Away) 05 Sept
Swindon
3 : 1 Colchester
01 Sept
Swindon
3 : 1 Port Vale
29 Aug
Oldham
3 : 0 Swindon
22 Aug
Swindon
2 : 1 Cheltenham
15 Aug
Northampton
0 : 0 Swindon
Page 1 of 6
29 Aug
Oldham
3 : 0 Swindon
15 Aug
Northampton
0 : 0 Swindon
08 Aug
Cardiff
3 : 2 Swindon
01 Aug
Forest Green
1 : 4 Swindon
18 Jul
Crystal Palace
5 : 1 Swindon
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Barrow 0
Preston 1
Wrexham 4
Hull City 3
Portsmouth 1
Reading 2
Gillingham 1
AFC Wimbledon 2
Burnley -
TBD -
West Brom 1
Derby 2
Cardiff 2
Swindon 1
Cheltenham 2
Exeter 0
Wolves -
TBD -
TBD -
West Ham -
Everton -
TBD -
Chesterfield 0
Mansfield 2
Tranmere 1
Burton 2
Harrogate 1
Lincoln City 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 2
Sheffield Utd 1
Blackpool 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 3
Fleetwood Town 2
Salford 0
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 1
Colchester 0
TBD -
Brighton -
Liverpool -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Watford 1
Norwich 2
Northampton 0
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Newport 0
Millwall 1
Coventry 1
Luton 0
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stoke City 1
Walsall 0
Blackburn 1
Bradford City 2
Tottenham -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Accrington 2
Peterborough 1
Middlesbrough 0
Doncaster 4
Wigan 1
Notts County 0
Stockport County 3
Crewe 1
Bromley 2
Ipswich 1
Leyton Orient 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham -
TBD -
Bristol City 2
Milton Keynes Dons 0
Bristol Rovers 0
Cambridge Utd 2
Charlton 3
Stevenage 1
Swansea 3
Crawley Town 1
Plymouth 3
QPR 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland -
TBD -
Huddersfield 3
Leicester 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Manchester City -
Bolton 3
Sheffield Wed 4
TBD -
Leeds -
Grimsby 3
Shrewsbury 1
TBD -
Manchester United -
Bournemouth -
TBD -
TBD -
Brentford -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/32-finals
Preston 2
Wrexham 3
Reading 2
AFC Wimbledon 1
Burnley 2
Derby 1
Cardiff 3
Cheltenham 0
Wolves 3
West Ham 2
Everton 2
Mansfield 0
Burton 0
Lincoln City 1
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 2
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool -
TBD -
Norwich 0
Southampton 3
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
Millwall 2
Coventry 1
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
Stoke City 0
Bradford City 3
Tottenham -
TBD -
Accrington 0
Doncaster 2
Wigan 1
Stockport County 0
Bromley 1
Wycombe 2
Fulham 2
Bristol City 0
Cambridge Utd 3
Charlton 1
Swansea 2
Plymouth 1
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland 1
Huddersfield 2
TBD -
Manchester City -
Sheffield Wed 2
Leeds 1
Grimsby 3
Manchester United 2
Bournemouth 0
Brentford 2
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/16-finals
Wrexham 2
Reading 0
Burnley 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 2
Everton 0
Lincoln City 1
Chelsea 2
Port Vale 0
Arsenal 2
Barnsley 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool 2
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace 2
Millwall 1
Newcastle Utd 4
Bradford City 1
Tottenham 3
Doncaster 0
Wigan 0
Wycombe 2
Fulham 1
Cambridge Utd 0
Swansea 3
Nottingham 2
Huddersfield 0
Manchester City 2
Sheffield Wed 0
Grimsby 1
Brentford 2
Aston Villa 1
1/8-finals
Wrexham 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 3
Chelsea 4
Arsenal 2
Brighton 0
Liverpool 0
Crystal Palace 3
Newcastle Utd 2
Tottenham 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham 2
Swansea 1
Manchester City 3
Grimsby 0
Brentford 5
Quarter-finals
Cardiff 1
Chelsea 3
Arsenal 2
Crystal Palace 1
Newcastle Utd 2
Fulham 1
Manchester City 2
Brentford 0
Semi-finals
Chelsea 2
Arsenal 4
Newcastle Utd 1
Manchester City 5
Final
Arsenal 0
Manchester City 2
