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Carlisle vs Hornchurch - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

National League Brunton Park, Carlisle
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Sub
Baldwin J. In: Greenidge W.
Out: Baldwin J.
29' Event
Azeez M.
46' Event
Bunker H.
Assist: Ellis J.

AI Match Summary

The National League game between Carlisle and Hornchurch finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Carlisle.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Carlisle
15%
Draws
39%
Hornchurch
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Carlisle

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Carlisle haven't matched Hornchurch's recent run of results.
  • Carlisle are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular National League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Carlisle Clean Sheet 20%
Hornchurch Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carlisle Hornchurch
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 13 16
Draws 8 4
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1.93 1.62
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 National League
Carlisle vs Hornchurch
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Carlisle Compare

Top Goalscorer Bunker H.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Azeez M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Hornchurch Compare

Top Goalscorer Kizzi J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carlisle 58 / 100
Hornchurch 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carlisle Hornchurch

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Carlisle Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Carlisle's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Hornchurch conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Carlisle went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Carlisle VS Hornchurch
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Carlisle

(Home)
10 Oct
Carlisle
0 : 0
Kidderminster
03 Oct
Aldershot
1 : 3
Carlisle
29 Sept
AFC Fylde
0 : 2
Carlisle
26 Sept
Carlisle
2 : 5
Woking
19 Sept
Eastleigh
1 : 0
Carlisle
Page 1 of 6

Hornchurch

(Away)
10 Oct
Hornchurch
2 : 0
Eastleigh
06 Oct
Hornchurch
1 : 2
Fulham U21
03 Oct
Harrogate
3 : 0
Hornchurch
29 Sept
Hornchurch
2 : 1
Aldershot
26 Sept
Altrincham
3 : 0
Hornchurch
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Boreham Wood 13 11 2 0 34:13 35
2 Harrogate 13 9 1 3 29:17 28
3 Southend 13 8 3 2 31:19 27
4 Yeovil 13 7 4 2 32:15 25
5 Worthing FC 13 7 3 3 27:18 24
6 Altrincham 13 8 0 5 20:19 24
7 AFC Fylde 13 7 2 4 24:18 23
8 Barrow 13 6 3 4 22:16 21
9 Hornchurch 13 7 0 6 15:19 21
10 Halifax 13 6 2 5 22:15 20
11 Kidderminster 13 5 5 3 15:12 20
12 Aldershot 13 5 3 5 18:16 18
13 Sutton 13 5 3 5 14:18 18
14 Carlisle 13 4 5 4 23:20 17
15 Woking 13 4 3 6 20:20 15
16 Forest Green 12 4 3 5 19:22 15
17 Eastleigh 13 4 3 6 14:20 15
18 Tamworth 13 4 2 7 21:30 14
19 Wealdstone 13 3 3 7 17:24 12
20 Hartlepool 13 4 0 9 12:19 12
21 Boston United 13 3 3 7 15:23 12
22 Scunthorpe 12 3 1 8 15:21 10
23 Solihull Moors 13 2 1 10 13:35 7
24 Gateshead 13 1 1 11 8:31 4
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