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Carlos Renaux vs Joinville Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense Estádio Augusto Bauer, Brusque
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Welligton Rocha
18'
Keke
46'
Sub
Ruan In: Keven
Out: Ruan

AI Match Summary

The Catarinense game between Carlos Renaux and Joinville finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Carlos Renaux.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Carlos Renaux
15%
Draws
40%
Joinville
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Carlos Renaux

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Joinville have managed 1.09 goals a game lately — Carlos Renaux are scoring more at 1.14.
  • Carlos Renaux are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Carlos Renaux Clean Sheet 68%
Joinville Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carlos Renaux Joinville
Matches Played 28 32
Wins 10 10
Draws 9 4
Losses 9 18
Goals Scored 1.14 1.09
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 19, 2026 Catarinense
Carlos Renaux vs Joinville
2:1
Feb 14, 2026 Catarinense
Joinville vs Carlos Renaux
3:0
Jan 21, 2026 Catarinense
Joinville vs Carlos Renaux
0:1
Oct 1, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Carlos Renaux vs Joinville
2:0
Sep 21, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Joinville vs Carlos Renaux
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Carlos Renaux Compare

Top Goalscorer Erverson
1 Goals
Assists Leader Welves
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Joinville Compare

Top Goalscorer Iago Dias
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carlos Renaux 50 / 100
Joinville 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carlos Renaux Joinville

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Carlos Renaux Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Carlos Renaux scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Joinville let in goals in 72% of their last 32 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Carlos Renaux remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Carlos Renaux VS Joinville
3 Goals Scored 0.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Carlos Renaux

(Home)
06 Mar
Figueirense
2 : 4
Carlos Renaux
26 Feb
Carlos Renaux
2 : 1
Marcilio Dias
19 Feb
Carlos Renaux
2 : 1
Joinville
14 Feb
Joinville
3 : 0
Carlos Renaux
09 Feb
Marcilio Dias
1 : 1
Carlos Renaux
Page 1 of 6

Joinville

(Away)
26 Sept
Joinville
2 : 1
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
19 Sept
Nacao
0 : 4
Joinville
12 Sept
Joinville
1 : 3
Hercilio Luz
05 Sept
Joinville
1 : 0
Blumenau
30 Aug
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2
Joinville
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Marcilio Dias 6 4 1 1 10:5 13
2 Carlos Renaux 6 4 1 1 10:8 13
3 Figueirense 6 2 0 4 6:7 7
4 Joinville 6 1 0 5 6:12 3
Relegation - Catarinense 2 2027 (Main)