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Carmarthen Town vs Afan Lido - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

Cymru South
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Aylward T.
45' Event
Keetch C.
49' Event
Reed L.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Cymru South game between Carmarthen Town and Afan Lido finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Carmarthen Town.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Carmarthen Town
35%
Draws
32%
Afan Lido
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Carmarthen Town carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 33% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Cymru South form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Carmarthen Town Clean Sheet 11%
Afan Lido Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carmarthen Town Afan Lido
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 9
Draws 9 4
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 2.03 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 14, 2026 Cymru South
Carmarthen Town vs Afan Lido
3:1
Jan 23, 2026 Cymru South
Afan Lido vs Carmarthen Town
0:1
Oct 24, 2025 Cymru South
Carmarthen Town vs Afan Lido
1:0
Mar 1, 2025 Cymru South
Carmarthen Town vs Afan Lido
2:2
Sep 27, 2024 Cymru South
Afan Lido vs Carmarthen Town
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Carmarthen Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Aylward T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bevan R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Afan Lido Compare

Top Goalscorer Keetch C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carmarthen Town 29 / 100
Afan Lido 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carmarthen Town Afan Lido

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Carmarthen Town Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Carmarthen Town scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Afan Lido conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Carmarthen Town went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Carmarthen Town VS Afan Lido
2 Goals Scored 1.63
2 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 63%
100% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Carmarthen Town

(Home)
10 Oct
Cardiff Draconians
2 : 2
Carmarthen Town
02 Oct
Carmarthen Town
1 : 2
Llantwit Major
25 Sept
Baglan Dragons
1 : 2
Carmarthen Town
12 Sept
Carmarthen Town
2 : 2
Ynyshir Albions
31 Aug
Carmarthen Town
2 : 3
Trethomas Bluebirds
Page 1 of 6

Afan Lido

(Away)
09 Oct
Afan Lido
5 : 5
Pure Swansea
02 Oct
Caerau Ely
2 : 0
Afan Lido
25 Sept
Afan Lido
0 : 0
Newport City
11 Sept
Pontypridd United
0 : 1
Afan Lido
04 Sept
Baglan Dragons
2 : 1
Afan Lido
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pure Swansea 9 6 3 0 30:11 21
2 Pontypridd United 10 6 2 2 24:17 20
3 Aberystwyth 9 6 1 2 22:9 19
4 Caerau Ely 10 6 1 3 22:18 19
5 Baglan Dragons 11 5 2 4 12:12 17
6 Ynyshir Albions 9 4 4 1 15:9 16
7 Carmarthen Town 10 4 3 3 22:21 15
8 Trethomas Bluebirds 10 3 4 3 20:18 13
9 Treowen 10 4 1 5 19:21 13
10 Afan Lido 11 3 3 5 18:22 12
11 Caerphilly 10 3 2 5 12:19 11
12 Pontardawe 9 3 1 5 15:17 10
13 Cardiff Draconians 8 2 3 3 11:14 9
14 Newport City 8 2 2 4 12:9 8
15 Llantwit Major 9 2 2 5 8:21 8
16 Llanelli 11 0 2 9 9:33 2
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)