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Carmelita vs Santa Ana - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Liga de Ascenso
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Match Events

23' Event
Rodriguez F.

AI Match Summary

The Liga de Ascenso game between Carmelita and Santa Ana finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Carmelita.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Carmelita
15%
Draws
40%
Santa Ana
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Carmelita

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Santa Ana carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 45% — that's where the model lands on Carmelita taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Carmelita Clean Sheet 18%
Santa Ana Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carmelita Santa Ana
Matches Played 29 25
Wins 8 11
Draws 9 3
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.17 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Carmelita vs Santa Ana
1:0
Aug 9, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Carmelita vs Santa Ana
2:3
Apr 12, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Santa Ana vs Carmelita
0:0
Feb 25, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Carmelita vs Santa Ana
1:2
Nov 16, 2025 Liga de Ascenso
Carmelita vs Santa Ana
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Carmelita Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Santa Ana Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carmelita 49 / 100
Santa Ana 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carmelita Santa Ana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Carmelita Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santa Ana's defensive record shows goals conceded in 88% of 25 matches.

Carmelita scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Carmelita went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Carmelita VS Santa Ana
1.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Carmelita

(Home)
10 Oct
Carmelita
0 : 2
Guadalupe
02 Oct
FC Moravia
0 : 3
Carmelita
26 Sept
Carmelita
1 : 0
Santa Ana
18 Sept
Carmelita
6 : 0
CS Uruguay
13 Sept
Cariari Pococi
1 : 1
Carmelita
Page 1 of 6

Santa Ana

(Away)
10 Oct
CS Uruguay
0 : 5
Santa Ana
04 Oct
Santa Ana
1 : 0
Cariari Pococi
02 Oct
Cariari Pococi
1 : 2
Santa Ana
26 Sept
Carmelita
1 : 0
Santa Ana
20 Sept
Aserri
1 : 0
Santa Ana
Page 1 of 5

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 ADR Jicaral 9 6 3 0 15:5 21
2 Quepos FC 9 5 1 3 13:7 16
3 Grecia 8 4 2 2 9:6 14
4 AD Rosario 8 4 1 3 11:10 13
5 AD Sarchi 8 3 2 3 8:11 11
6 Santa Cruz 9 2 0 7 11:19 6
7 Cofutpa 9 1 1 7 8:17 4
Promotion - Liga de Ascenso (Apertura - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Santa Ana 11 8 0 3 19:10 24
2 Pitbulls 10 5 4 1 18:13 19
3 Carmelita 11 4 3 4 19:13 15
4 Aserri 10 4 2 4 10:11 14
5 Cariari Pococi 10 3 4 3 11:11 13
6 Guadalupe 11 3 3 5 15:19 12
7 FC Moravia 10 3 1 6 12:13 10
8 CS Uruguay 11 2 3 6 9:23 9
Promotion - Liga de Ascenso (Apertura - Play Offs)