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Carmopolis vs Atletico Gloriense

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Everton Santos

AI Match Summary

The Sergipano 2024 game between Carmopolis and Atletico Gloriense finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Carmopolis.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Carmopolis
35%
Draws
46%
Atletico Gloriense
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Atletico Gloriense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Atletico Gloriense come out ahead of Carmopolis on wins alone.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on Atletico Gloriense taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Carmopolis Clean Sheet 13%
Atletico Gloriense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carmopolis Atletico Gloriense
Matches Played 20 31
Wins 3 12
Draws 5 6
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 1 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.68
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 20, 2024 Sergipano
Carmopolis vs Atletico Gloriense
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Carmopolis Compare

Top Goalscorer Everton Santos
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

Atletico Gloriense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.53
Avg xA / game 0.93

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carmopolis 22 / 100
Atletico Gloriense 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carmopolis Atletico Gloriense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Atletico Gloriense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Carmopolis scored in 65% of their last 20 outings.

Atletico Gloriense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Carmopolis has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Atletico Gloriense
0 Goals Scored 2.25
0 Goals Conceded 0.75
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Carmopolis

(Home)
01 Mar
Guarany SE
2 : 1
Carmopolis
22 Feb
Carmopolis
1 : 1
Lagarto
15 Feb
Carmopolis
1 : 1
America de Propria
10 Feb
Falcon
3 : 2
Carmopolis
03 Feb
Barra SE
3 : 2
Carmopolis
Page 1 of 4

Atletico Gloriense

(Away)
18 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
Atletico Gloriense
13 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 0
Lagarto
08 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 1
Falcon
05 Aug
America de Propria
1 : 5
Atletico Gloriense
01 Aug
Guarany SE
1 : 1
Atletico Gloriense
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Confianca 9 7 0 2 16:6 21
2 Sergipe 9 6 2 1 12:4 20
3 Lagarto 9 5 3 1 15:9 18
4 Itabaiana 9 4 2 3 12:10 14
5 Dorense 9 4 1 4 10:12 13
6 Falcon 9 3 3 3 11:13 12
7 America de Propria 9 3 2 4 13:10 11
8 Carmopolis 9 2 2 5 6:10 8
9 Olimpico EC 9 2 1 6 7:12 7
10 Atletico Gloriense 9 1 0 8 6:22 3
Promotion - Sergipano 2024 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano 2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Sergipano 2024 (Relegation - Play Offs)