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Carmopolis vs Olimpico EC

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Pingo
62'
Marcos Wilder
62'
Bruninho

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-1, with Olimpico EC advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

11%
Carmopolis
20%
Draws
69%
Olimpico EC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Olimpico EC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Carmopolis haven't matched Olimpico EC's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Olimpico EC a 69% chance of winning this.
  • Olimpico EC arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Olimpico EC, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Carmopolis Clean Sheet 16%
Olimpico EC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carmopolis Olimpico EC
Matches Played 20 30
Wins 3 11
Draws 5 5
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 23, 2024 Sergipano
Carmopolis vs Olimpico EC
0:1
Mar 17, 2024 Sergipano
Olimpico EC vs Carmopolis
1:4
Feb 4, 2024 Sergipano
Carmopolis vs Olimpico EC
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Carmopolis Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Olimpico EC Compare

Top Goalscorer Pingo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carmopolis 10 / 100
Olimpico EC 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carmopolis Olimpico EC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Olimpico EC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Carmopolis's goal record stands at 65% scoring rate across 20 recent games.

Defensive concern: Olimpico EC conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Carmopolis went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Carmopolis VS Olimpico EC
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Carmopolis

(Home)
01 Mar
Guarany SE
2 : 1
Carmopolis
22 Feb
Carmopolis
1 : 1
Lagarto
15 Feb
Carmopolis
1 : 1
America de Propria
10 Feb
Falcon
3 : 2
Carmopolis
03 Feb
Barra SE
3 : 2
Carmopolis
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Olimpico EC

(Away)
01 Nov
Boca Junior
0 : 3
Olimpico EC
25 Oct
Olimpico EC
4 : 1
Flamengo SE
18 Oct
Caninde
1 : 7
Olimpico EC
15 Oct
Olimpico EC
1 : 0
America de Pedrinhas
11 Oct
Atletico Gloriense
2 : 0
Olimpico EC
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
America de Propria 3
Atletico Gloriense 2
Carmopolis 4
Olimpico EC 2