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Carmopolis vs Sergipe

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Bezerra C.
44' Event
Leo Fernandes
45' Event
Dudu

AI Match Summary

The Sergipano 2025 game between Carmopolis and Sergipe finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sergipe.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Carmopolis
35%
Draws
32%
Sergipe
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Sergipe carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Carmopolis's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular Sergipano 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Carmopolis Clean Sheet 68%
Sergipe Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carmopolis Sergipe
Matches Played 20 38
Wins 3 19
Draws 5 10
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1 1.26
Goals Conceded 1.4 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.24
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 15, 2025 Sergipano
Carmopolis vs Sergipe
1:2
Feb 10, 2024 Sergipano
Carmopolis vs Sergipe
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Carmopolis Compare

Top Goalscorer Dudu
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

Sergipe Compare

Top Goalscorer Bezerra C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Leo Fernandes
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.13
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carmopolis 46 / 100
Sergipe 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carmopolis Sergipe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Carmopolis found the back of the net in 65% of recent matches (20 games).

Defensive concern: Sergipe conceded in 68% of 38 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Sergipe registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Sergipe
0 Goals Scored 1.38
0 Goals Conceded 0.75
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Carmopolis

(Home)
01 Mar
Guarany SE
2 : 1
Carmopolis
22 Feb
Carmopolis
1 : 1
Lagarto
15 Feb
Carmopolis
1 : 1
America de Propria
10 Feb
Falcon
3 : 2
Carmopolis
03 Feb
Barra SE
3 : 2
Carmopolis
Page 1 of 4

Sergipe

(Away)
27 Jun
Sergipe
0 : 1
ASA
21 Jun
ASA
1 : 1
Sergipe
14 Jun
Sergipe
1 : 1
Serra Branca
31 May
Decisao
3 : 2
Sergipe
23 May
Sergipe
0 : 1
Treze PB
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Confianca 9 6 2 1 26:8 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 4 0 18:7 19
3 Lagarto 9 5 2 2 20:8 17
4 America de Propria 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 4 1 4 9:19 13
6 Falcon 9 4 0 5 11:15 12
7 Sergipe 9 3 2 4 10:11 11
8 Dorense 9 2 2 5 7:12 8
9 Barra SE 9 2 1 6 8:27 7
10 Carmopolis 9 0 3 6 10:16 3
Promotion - Sergipano 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano 2025 (Play Offs)