Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Carolina Ascent W vs Tampa Bay Sun W

USA USA

USL Super League Women 2025/2026 American Legion Memorial Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Our Tip

Match Events

22'
Bessette V.
39'
Corbin M.
53' Event
Lussi T.
Assist: Corbin M.

AI Match Summary

The USL Super League Women 2025/2026 game between Carolina Ascent W and Tampa Bay Sun W finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Carolina Ascent W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Carolina Ascent W
6%
Draws
4%
Tampa Bay Sun W
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Carolina Ascent W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Tampa Bay Sun W haven't matched Carolina Ascent W's recent run of results.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Carolina Ascent W taking it.
  • Regular USL Super League Women 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Carolina Ascent W Clean Sheet 68%
Tampa Bay Sun W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carolina Ascent W Tampa Bay Sun W
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 16 8
Draws 7 9
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.38 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.38 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 USL Super League Women
Tampa Bay Sun W vs Carolina Ascent W
1:2
Apr 5, 2026 USL Super League Women
Tampa Bay Sun W vs Carolina Ascent W
1:2
Mar 13, 2026 USL Super League Women
Carolina Ascent W vs Tampa Bay Sun W
1:0
Sep 6, 2025 USL Super League Women
Carolina Ascent W vs Tampa Bay Sun W
2:2
May 17, 2025 USL Super League Women
Carolina Ascent W vs Tampa Bay Sun W
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Carolina Ascent W Compare

Top Goalscorer Lussi T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Tampa Bay Sun W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carolina Ascent W 95 / 100
Tampa Bay Sun W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carolina Ascent W Tampa Bay Sun W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Tampa Bay Sun W conceded in 81% of 31 recent games.

Carolina Ascent W scored in 78% of their last 32 games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Carolina Ascent W went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Carolina Ascent W VS Tampa Bay Sun W
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.88
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Carolina Ascent W

(Home)
30 May
Lexington W
3 : 1
Carolina Ascent W
24 May
Sporting Jax W
0 : 1
Carolina Ascent W
16 May
Carolina Ascent W
3 : 1
Sporting Jax W
09 May
Fort Lauderdale United W
0 : 3
Carolina Ascent W
25 Apr
Tampa Bay Sun W
1 : 2
Carolina Ascent W
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Tampa Bay Sun W

(Away)
16 May
Lexington W
1 : 0
Tampa Bay Sun W
09 May
Tampa Bay Sun W
0 : 2
Dallas Trinity W
02 May
Fort Lauderdale United W
1 : 2
Tampa Bay Sun W
25 Apr
Tampa Bay Sun W
1 : 2
Carolina Ascent W
18 Apr
Lexington W
4 : 0
Tampa Bay Sun W
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Lexington W281411350:2453
2Sporting Jax W28165754:3253
3Carolina Ascent W28156739:2751
4Dallas Trinity W281171036:4040
5Spokane Zephyr W28109934:2839
6DC Power W28891134:3233
7Brooklyn W28681431:4426
8Tampa Bay Sun W28591427:4624
9Fort Lauderdale United W28581530:6223
Promotion - USL Super League Women 2025/2026 (Play Offs)