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Caronnese vs Alcione Milano

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Palma A.
31' Event
Morselli F.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group B 2022/2023 game between Caronnese and Alcione Milano finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alcione Milano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Caronnese
30%
Draws
70%
Alcione Milano
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Alcione Milano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Alcione Milano come out ahead of Caronnese on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Alcione Milano's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Alcione Milano have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Caronnese Clean Sheet 20%
Alcione Milano Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caronnese Alcione Milano
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 2 13
Draws 7 12
Losses 21 9
Goals Scored 0.7 1.15
Goals Conceded 1.93 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 0.80
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 29, 2023 Serie D - Group B
Caronnese vs Alcione Milano
0:2
Sep 28, 2022 Serie D - Group B
Alcione Milano vs Caronnese
4:0
Aug 20, 2022 Club Friendly
Caronnese vs Alcione Milano
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caronnese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Alcione Milano Compare

Top Goalscorer Palma A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Morselli F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.73
Avg xA / game 0.44

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caronnese 28 / 100
Alcione Milano 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caronnese Alcione Milano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alcione Milano Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Caronnese scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

Alcione Milano let in goals in 59% of their last 34 matches.

Away concern: Alcione Milano has suffered 1 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Alcione Milano
0 Goals Scored 0.5
0 Goals Conceded 1.25
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Caronnese

(Home)
07 May
Caronnese
1 : 3
Folgore Caratese
30 Apr
Lumezzane
2 : 0
Caronnese
23 Apr
Caronnese
1 : 2
Ponte San Pietro
16 Apr
Caronnese
1 : 2
Varese FC
06 Apr
Sona
2 : 0
Caronnese
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Alcione Milano

(Away)
20 Sept
Alcione Milano
0 : 4
Union Brescia
17 Sept
Pro Vercelli
2 : 2
Alcione Milano
13 Sept
Folgore Caratese
2 : 3
Alcione Milano
07 Sept
Alcione Milano
1 : 1
Treviso
30 Aug
Dolomiti Bellunesi
0 : 0
Alcione Milano
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lumezzane 34 24 5 5 67:20 77
2 Alcione Milano 34 21 8 5 67:31 71
3 USD Casatese 34 16 11 7 38:26 59
4 Arconatese 34 16 9 9 54:37 57
5 Desenzano Calvina 34 15 8 11 47:41 53
6 Franciacorta 34 13 11 10 44:43 50
7 Ponte San Pietro 34 11 16 7 47:38 49
8 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 14 6 14 42:40 48
9 Brusaporto 34 12 11 11 43:38 47
10 Varesina 34 13 7 14 47:50 46
11 Villa Valle 34 9 14 11 40:47 41
12 Real Calepina 34 7 18 9 30:33 39
13 Folgore Caratese 34 10 9 15 37:46 39
14 Seregno Calcio 34 10 11 13 42:56 38
15 Breno 34 10 7 17 35:50 37
16 Varese FC 34 8 9 17 30:46 33
17 Sona 34 6 9 19 28:56 27
18 Caronnese 34 2 9 23 24:64 15
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2022/2023 (Play Out)