Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Caronnese vs Ponte San Pietro

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

49' Event
Braidich D.
84' Event
Pinto F.
(Penalty)
88' Event
Capelli A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group B 2022/2023 game between Caronnese and Ponte San Pietro finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ponte San Pietro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Caronnese
15%
Draws
85%
Ponte San Pietro
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ponte San Pietro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Caronnese haven't matched Ponte San Pietro's recent run of results.
  • Ponte San Pietro are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Caronnese Clean Sheet 20%
Ponte San Pietro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caronnese Ponte San Pietro
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 2 5
Draws 7 7
Losses 21 20
Goals Scored 0.7 0.72
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.56
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 23, 2023 Serie D - Group B
Caronnese vs Ponte San Pietro
1:2
Dec 11, 2022 Serie D - Group B
Ponte San Pietro vs Caronnese
0:0
Jan 6, 2019 Serie D - Group B
Ponte San Pietro vs Caronnese
2:2
Sep 16, 2018 Serie D - Group B
Caronnese vs Ponte San Pietro
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caronnese Compare

Top Goalscorer Braidich D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74

Ponte San Pietro Compare

Top Goalscorer Capelli A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.48

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caronnese 24 / 100
Ponte San Pietro 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caronnese Ponte San Pietro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ponte San Pietro Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ponte San Pietro let in goals in 75% of their last 32 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Ponte San Pietro lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Caronnese found the back of the net in 50% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

- VS Ponte San Pietro
0 Goals Scored 0.63
0 Goals Conceded 1.75
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Caronnese

(Home)
07 May
Caronnese
1 : 3
Folgore Caratese
30 Apr
Lumezzane
2 : 0
Caronnese
23 Apr
Caronnese
1 : 2
Ponte San Pietro
16 Apr
Caronnese
1 : 2
Varese FC
06 Apr
Sona
2 : 0
Caronnese
Page 1 of 6

Ponte San Pietro

(Away)
05 May
Real Calepina
3 : 0
Ponte San Pietro
28 Apr
Ponte San Pietro
2 : 3
Villa Valle
21 Apr
Varesina
2 : 1
Ponte San Pietro
14 Apr
Ponte San Pietro
0 : 1
Brusaporto
07 Apr
Castellanzese
2 : 5
Ponte San Pietro
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lumezzane 34 24 5 5 67:20 77
2 Alcione Milano 34 21 8 5 67:31 71
3 USD Casatese 34 16 11 7 38:26 59
4 Arconatese 34 16 9 9 54:37 57
5 Desenzano Calvina 34 15 8 11 47:41 53
6 Franciacorta 34 13 11 10 44:43 50
7 Ponte San Pietro 34 11 16 7 47:38 49
8 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 14 6 14 42:40 48
9 Brusaporto 34 12 11 11 43:38 47
10 Varesina 34 13 7 14 47:50 46
11 Villa Valle 34 9 14 11 40:47 41
12 Real Calepina 34 7 18 9 30:33 39
13 Folgore Caratese 34 10 9 15 37:46 39
14 Seregno Calcio 34 10 11 13 42:56 38
15 Breno 34 10 7 17 35:50 37
16 Varese FC 34 8 9 17 30:46 33
17 Sona 34 6 9 19 28:56 27
18 Caronnese 34 2 9 23 24:64 15
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2022/2023 (Play Out)