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Carrick Rangers vs Crusaders

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland

NIFL Premiership Loughview Leisure Arena, Carrickfergus
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Lecky A.
37'
Gibson D.
55' Event
Forsythe J.

AI Match Summary

Carrick Rangers in this NIFL Premiership matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Carrick Rangers.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Carrick Rangers
15%
Draws
51%
Crusaders
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Crusaders

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Carrick Rangers have won more games recently than Crusaders.
  • Carrick Rangers are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular NIFL Premiership form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Carrick Rangers Clean Sheet 13%
Crusaders Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carrick Rangers Crusaders
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 13
Draws 4 5
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 2.03 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 NIFL Premiership
Carrick Rangers vs Crusaders
4:0
Mar 28, 2026 NIFL Premiership
Carrick Rangers vs Crusaders
6:1
Dec 30, 2025 NIFL Premiership
Crusaders vs Carrick Rangers
2:2
Nov 8, 2025 NIFL Premiership
Carrick Rangers vs Crusaders
1:2
Aug 9, 2025 NIFL Premiership
Crusaders vs Carrick Rangers
3:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Carrick Rangers Compare

Top Goalscorer Lecky A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Forsythe J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Crusaders Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carrick Rangers 35 / 100
Crusaders 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carrick Rangers Crusaders

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Carrick Rangers scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Crusaders has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Crusaders lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Carrick Rangers VS Crusaders
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Carrick Rangers

(Home)
03 Oct
Carrick Rangers
4 : 0
Crusaders
26 Sept
Glentoran
2 : 0
Carrick Rangers
19 Sept
Carrick Rangers
2 : 5
Larne
15 Sept
Ballymena
1 : 1
Carrick Rangers
12 Sept
Carrick Rangers
1 : 3
Cliftonville
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Crusaders

(Away)
03 Oct
Carrick Rangers
4 : 0
Crusaders
26 Sept
Crusaders
2 : 1
Bangor FC
19 Sept
Linfield
1 : 0
Crusaders
15 Sept
Crusaders
3 : 0
Dungannon
12 Sept
Crusaders
1 : 2
Limavady
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Coleraine 10 8 1 1 22:10 25
2 Linfield 9 7 1 1 12:6 22
3 Larne 6 5 1 0 12:3 16
4 Glentoran 10 5 1 4 15:10 16
5 Crusaders 10 5 0 5 15:18 15
6 Carrick Rangers 10 4 1 5 15:15 13
7 Dungannon 9 4 1 4 9:10 13
8 Ballymena 9 3 3 3 13:11 12
9 Cliftonville 10 4 0 6 12:12 12
10 Limavady 9 3 0 6 8:14 9
11 Bangor FC 10 1 2 7 10:22 5
12 Portadown 10 1 1 8 8:20 4
Promotion - NIFL Premiership (Championship Group)
Relegation - NIFL Premiership (Relegation Group)