Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Casa Pia vs Benfica Prediction & H2H Stats

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Prestianni G.
14' Event
Silva R.
Assist: Pavlidis V.
47' Event
Pavlidis V.

AI Match Summary

Benfica in this Liga Portugal matchup, with the score ending 0-7 — backing the pre-match view that favored Benfica.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Casa Pia
15%
Draws
64%
Benfica
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Benfica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Benfica lately — more wins on the board than Casa Pia.
  • Model gives Benfica a 64% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga Portugal form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Casa Pia Clean Sheet 10%
Benfica Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Casa Pia Benfica
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 6 20
Draws 9 6
Losses 14 4
Goals Scored 0.79 2.67
Goals Conceded 1.72 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.76 3.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 17, 2026 Liga Portugal
Casa Pia vs Benfica
0:7
Apr 6, 2026 Liga Portugal
Casa Pia vs Benfica
1:1
Nov 9, 2025 Liga Portugal
Benfica vs Casa Pia
2:2
Jan 25, 2025 Liga Portugal
Casa Pia vs Benfica
3:1
Aug 17, 2024 Liga Portugal
Benfica vs Casa Pia
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Casa Pia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Benfica Compare

Top Goalscorer Pavlidis V.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Prestianni G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.78
Avg xA / game 1.7

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Casa Pia 10 / 100
Benfica 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Casa Pia Benfica

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Benfica Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Benfica's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: Casa Pia scored in 48% of their last 29 outings.

Recent resilience: Casa Pia stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Casa Pia VS Benfica
0.63 Goals Scored 3.38
2.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Casa Pia

(Home)
20 Sept
Estoril
1 : 2
Casa Pia
12 Sept
Casa Pia
1 : 4
FC Porto
06 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 0
Casa Pia
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1
Moreirense
24 Aug
Gil Vicente
2 : 0
Casa Pia
Page 1 of 6

Benfica

(Away)
20 Sept
FC Porto
3 : 1
Benfica
16 Sept
AC Milan
0 : 2
Benfica
13 Sept
Benfica
3 : 1
Gil Vicente
09 Sept
Moreirense
0 : 4
Benfica
05 Sept
Maritimo
0 : 3
Benfica
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Porto 7 7 0 0 18:3 21
2 Benfica 7 5 1 1 22:7 16
3 Sporting CP 7 4 3 0 17:8 15
4 Santa Clara 7 4 3 0 11:4 15
5 Arouca 7 3 2 2 10:7 11
6 Braga 6 3 2 1 7:5 11
7 Academico Viseu 7 3 2 2 9:9 11
8 Estrela da Amadora 7 2 4 1 14:14 10
9 Gil Vicente 6 2 2 2 5:5 8
10 Alverca 7 2 2 3 9:11 8
11 Maritimo 7 2 2 3 8:12 8
12 Moreirense 7 2 2 3 8:14 8
13 Famalicao 7 1 4 2 9:7 7
14 Vitoria Guimaraes 7 1 2 4 5:8 5
15 Nacional 7 1 1 5 7:15 4
16 Rio Ave 7 1 1 5 5:15 4
17 Casa Pia 7 1 1 5 3:16 4
18 Estoril 7 0 2 5 3:10 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2027/2028 (Main)