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Stadium Background

Casa Pia vs FC Porto Prediction & H2H Stats

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior
Casa Pia Logo

Casa Pia

1 - 4
FT
FC Porto Logo

FC Porto

Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Araujo H.
(Penalty)
45'
Kiwior J.
45' Event
Silva An.
Assist: Rosario P.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

FC Porto in this Liga Portugal matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored FC Porto.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Casa Pia
15%
Draws
64%
FC Porto
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FC Porto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • FC Porto have won more games recently than Casa Pia.
  • Win probability leans FC Porto's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Liga Portugal form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors FC Porto here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Casa Pia Clean Sheet 10%
FC Porto Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Casa Pia FC Porto
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 6 23
Draws 9 4
Losses 14 6
Goals Scored 0.79 1.73
Goals Conceded 1.72 0.76
Expected Goals (xG) 0.44 2.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Liga Portugal
Casa Pia vs FC Porto
1:4
Feb 2, 2026 Liga Portugal
Casa Pia vs FC Porto
2:1
Aug 24, 2025 Liga Portugal
FC Porto vs Casa Pia
4:0
Apr 12, 2025 Liga Portugal
Casa Pia vs FC Porto
0:1
Dec 2, 2024 Liga Portugal
FC Porto vs Casa Pia
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Casa Pia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.34
Avg xA / game 0.22

FC Porto Compare

Top Goalscorer Silva An.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kiwior J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.36

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Casa Pia 10 / 100
FC Porto 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Casa Pia FC Porto

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Porto Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Casa Pia found the back of the net in 48% of recent matches (29 games).

FC Porto let in goals in 58% of their last 33 matches.

Recent resilience: Casa Pia stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Casa Pia VS FC Porto
0.38 Goals Scored 2
2.88 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Casa Pia

(Home)
20 Sept
Estoril
1 : 2
Casa Pia
12 Sept
Casa Pia
1 : 4
FC Porto
06 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 0
Casa Pia
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1
Moreirense
24 Aug
Gil Vicente
2 : 0
Casa Pia
Page 1 of 6

FC Porto

(Away)
02 Oct
Dep. A Coruna
1 : 3
FC Porto
20 Sept
FC Porto
3 : 1
Benfica
12 Sept
Casa Pia
1 : 4
FC Porto
08 Sept
FC Porto
0 : 2
Manchester City
04 Sept
FC Porto
2 : 1
Moreirense
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Porto 7 7 0 0 18:3 21
2 Benfica 7 5 1 1 22:7 16
3 Sporting CP 7 4 3 0 17:8 15
4 Santa Clara 7 4 3 0 11:4 15
5 Arouca 7 3 2 2 10:7 11
6 Braga 6 3 2 1 7:5 11
7 Academico Viseu 7 3 2 2 9:9 11
8 Estrela da Amadora 7 2 4 1 14:14 10
9 Gil Vicente 6 2 2 2 5:5 8
10 Alverca 7 2 2 3 9:11 8
11 Maritimo 7 2 2 3 8:12 8
12 Moreirense 7 2 2 3 8:14 8
13 Famalicao 7 1 4 2 9:7 7
14 Vitoria Guimaraes 7 1 2 4 5:8 5
15 Nacional 7 1 1 5 7:15 4
16 Rio Ave 7 1 1 5 5:15 4
17 Casa Pia 7 1 1 5 3:16 4
18 Estoril 7 0 2 5 3:10 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2027/2028 (Main)