Sport Picks
Casa Pia vs Moreirense
Portugal
Liga Portugal Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior 
Match Events
24'
24'
Kiko
Assist: Veloso J.
46'
46'
Sub
Rocha D. In: Dafe A.
Out: Rocha D.
61'
61'
Rosas P.
AI Match Summary
Moreirense in this Liga Portugal matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Moreirense.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
12%
15%
73%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Moreirense
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
73%
/ High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Moreirense lately — more wins on the board than Casa Pia.
- Win probability leans Moreirense's way, sitting at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Casa Pia Clean Sheet 11%
Moreirense Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Casa Pia | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 5 | 8 |
| Draws | 9 | 7 |
| Losses | 15 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 0.76 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.79 | 1.57 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 30, 2026 Liga Portugal
Casa Pia vs Moreirense
0:1
Mar 1, 2026 Liga Portugal
Casa Pia vs Moreirense
1:1
Sep 27, 2025 Liga Portugal
Moreirense vs Casa Pia
2:1
Feb 15, 2025 Liga Portugal
Moreirense vs Casa Pia
3:2
Sep 14, 2024 Liga Portugal
Casa Pia vs Moreirense
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Casa Pia Compare
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Moreirense Compare
Top Goalscorer Kiko
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Casa Pia 10 / 100
Moreirense 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Casa Pia Moreirense
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Moreirense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Moreirense conceded in 79% of 28 recent games.
Games between these two average 3.00 goals.
Difficult form: Moreirense registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.
Casa Pia scored in 48% of their last 29 games.
Scoring Trends
Casa Pia VS Moreirense
0.5 Goals Scored 1.13
2.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Casa Pia
(Home) 12 Sept
Casa Pia
1 : 4 FC Porto
06 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 0 Casa Pia
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1 Moreirense
24 Aug
Gil Vicente
2 : 0 Casa Pia
17 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 7 Benfica
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Casa Pia
1 : 4 FC Porto
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1 Moreirense
17 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 7 Benfica
28 May
Casa Pia
2 : 0 Torreense
16 May
Casa Pia
1 : 1 Rio Ave
Page 1 of 3
Moreirense
(Away) 14 Sept
Moreirense
3 : 1 Maritimo
09 Sept
Moreirense
0 : 4 Benfica
04 Sept
FC Porto
2 : 1 Moreirense
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1 Moreirense
16 Aug
Arouca
4 : 0 Moreirense
Page 1 of 6
04 Sept
FC Porto
2 : 1 Moreirense
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1 Moreirense
16 Aug
Arouca
4 : 0 Moreirense
25 Jul
Gil Vicente
2 : 2 Moreirense
22 Jul
Santa Clara
2 : 1 Moreirense
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15:2 | 18 |
| 2 | Benfica | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21:4 | 16 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15:6 | 14 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11:4 | 14 |
| 5 | Arouca | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:5 | 10 |
| 6 | Estrela da Amadora | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14:12 | 10 |
| 7 | Braga | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7:5 | 10 |
| 8 | Academico Viseu | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:9 | 8 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4:4 | 7 |
| 10 | Maritimo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7:11 | 7 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7:13 | 7 |
| 12 | Alverca | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | 5 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5:7 | 4 |
| 14 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 15 | Nacional | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7:11 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5:14 | 4 |
| 17 | Estoril | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2:8 | 2 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1:15 | 1 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2027/2028 (Main)
