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Casalarreina CF vs Alfaro - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
09:30 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Casalarreina CF host Alfaro in the Tercera RFEF - Group 16. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Recent numbers: Casalarreina CF at 1.25 goals for, 2.06 against; Alfaro at 1.13 for, 1.67 against. Past meetings favor Alfaro slightly — 1-4-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 29, 2024, ending 1:2. xG projections (1.46 - 1.75) back Alfaro to edge this. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Casalarreina CF
15%
Draws
65%
Alfaro
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alfaro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Casalarreina CF have won more games recently than Alfaro.
  • Alfaro are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Alfaro here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 33.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Casalarreina CF Clean Sheet 12%
Alfaro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Casalarreina CF Alfaro
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 11 9
Draws 3 6
Losses 18 15
Goals Scored 1.25 1.13
Goals Conceded 2.06 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.46 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Casalarreina CF vs Alfaro
1:2
Nov 11, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Alfaro vs Casalarreina CF
1:5
May 7, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Alfaro vs Casalarreina CF
3:0
Mar 13, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Casalarreina CF vs Alfaro
0:1
Oct 31, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Alfaro vs Casalarreina CF
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Casalarreina CF 10 / 100
Alfaro 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Casalarreina CF Alfaro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alfaro Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Casalarreina CF scored in 69% of their last 32 outings.

Alfaro's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Casalarreina CF went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Casalarreina CF VS Alfaro
0.67 Goals Scored 1.5
2 Goals Conceded 2.25
67% Over 1.5 88%
67% Over 2.5 63%
17% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Casalarreina CF

(Home)
04 Oct
Calasancio
2 : 1
Casalarreina CF
26 Sept
Casalarreina CF
1 : 5
Agoncillo
18 Sept
Oyonesa
1 : 0
Casalarreina CF
13 Sept
Casalarreina CF
0 : 3
CDFC La Calzada
05 Sept
Pradejon
1 : 2
Casalarreina CF
Page 1 of 7

Alfaro

(Away)
04 Oct
Alfaro
2 : 1
CD Calahorra
27 Sept
Anguiano
1 : 2
Alfaro
20 Sept
Alfaro
1 : 2
Haro Deportivo
13 Sept
Alfaro
2 : 1
Yague
06 Sept
Calasancio
2 : 2
Alfaro
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Haro Deportivo 5 4 1 0 12:6 13
2 Berceo 5 4 0 1 14:5 12
3 CDFC La Calzada 5 4 0 1 9:4 12
4 Alfaro 5 3 1 1 9:7 10
5 Pradejon 6 3 1 2 9:7 10
6 CD Calahorra 5 3 0 2 14:7 9
7 Agoncillo 5 2 2 1 12:8 8
8 Anguiano 6 2 2 2 8:6 8
9 Varea 5 1 4 0 4:3 7
10 San Marcial 5 1 3 1 4:4 6
11 Yague 6 2 0 4 5:11 6
12 Cenicero 5 1 2 2 6:7 5
13 Oyonesa 5 1 2 2 5:7 5
14 Comillas CF 5 1 2 2 3:5 5
15 Calasancio 5 1 2 2 7:12 5
16 River Ebro 6 1 1 4 6:15 4
17 Casalarreina CF 5 1 0 4 4:12 3
18 Vianes 5 0 1 4 5:10 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 16 (Play Offs)