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Castanhal vs Santa Rosa

Brazil Brazil

Paraense Estádio Maximino Porpino Filho, Castanhal
Our Tip

Match Events

72' Event
Jhonatan
90'
PH Gama
90'
Ramon Rocha

AI Match Summary

The Paraense game between Castanhal and Santa Rosa finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Castanhal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Castanhal
15%
Draws
34%
Santa Rosa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Castanhal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Castanhal come out ahead of Santa Rosa on wins alone.
  • Castanhal are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Paraense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 22%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24%
Castanhal Clean Sheet 68%
Santa Rosa Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castanhal Santa Rosa
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 9
Draws 8 4
Losses 12 17
Goals Scored 1.03 0.57
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2026 Paraense
Castanhal vs Santa Rosa
1:0
Feb 8, 2025 Paraense
Santa Rosa vs Castanhal
1:1
Jan 28, 2024 Paraense
Santa Rosa vs Castanhal
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castanhal Compare

Top Goalscorer Jhonatan
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Santa Rosa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castanhal 51 / 100
Santa Rosa 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castanhal Santa Rosa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castanhal scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Santa Rosa let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Away concern: Santa Rosa has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

These sides typically produce 1.33 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Castanhal VS Santa Rosa
0.75 Goals Scored 0.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
38% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Castanhal

(Home)
11 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 4
Nova Iguacu
07 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 1
Capitao Poco
28 Feb
Castanhal
1 : 0
Aguia De Maraba
25 Feb
Castanhal
2 : 1
Guarani
22 Feb
Paysandu PA
1 : 0
Castanhal
Page 1 of 6

Santa Rosa

(Away)
22 Feb
Aguia De Maraba
1 : 0
Santa Rosa
19 Feb
Cameta
2 : 0
Santa Rosa
15 Feb
Santa Rosa
0 : 2
Paysandu PA
12 Feb
Amazonia IFC
2 : 2
Santa Rosa
08 Feb
Santa Rosa
1 : 0
Bragantino PA
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cameta 6 3 2 1 8:4 11
2 Capitao Poco 6 3 1 2 9:6 10
3 Paysandu PA 6 3 1 2 6:4 10
4 Aguia De Maraba 6 3 1 2 8:7 10
5 Remo 6 2 4 0 9:5 10
6 Tuna Luso 6 3 0 3 3:5 9
7 Castanhal 6 2 2 2 4:5 8
8 Santa Rosa 6 2 1 3 4:7 7
9 Sao Raimundo PA 6 1 3 2 6:8 6
10 Amazonia IFC 6 1 3 2 7:11 6
11 Bragantino PA 6 1 2 3 6:7 5
12 Sao Francisco 6 1 2 3 4:5 5
Promotion - Paraense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paraense A2 2027 (Main)