Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Castanhal vs Tuna Luso

Brazil Brazil

Paraense 2025 Centro de Treinamento do Castanhal, Castanhal
Sun, Mar 30, 2025
3 - 4
01:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Sousa E.
(Penalty)
21'
Sub
Guilherme In: Wesley Raizeman
Out: Guilherme
45' Event
Rangel P.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-4, with Tuna Luso advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Castanhal
20%
Draws
36%
Tuna Luso
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Castanhal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Tuna Luso come out ahead of Castanhal on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Castanhal's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Tuna Luso arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Tuna Luso, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Castanhal Clean Sheet 16%
Tuna Luso Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castanhal Tuna Luso
Matches Played 30 36
Wins 10 16
Draws 8 7
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 1.03 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.44
Expected Goals (xG) 0.99 1.45
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2026 Paraense
Castanhal vs Tuna Luso
0:1
Apr 6, 2025 Copa Grao Para
Tuna Luso vs Castanhal
2:1
Mar 30, 2025 Paraense
Castanhal vs Tuna Luso
3:4
Feb 16, 2025 Paraense
Castanhal vs Tuna Luso
2:2
Feb 4, 2024 Paraense
Castanhal vs Tuna Luso
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castanhal Compare

Top Goalscorer Rangel P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vidal G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.76
Avg xA / game 0.49

Tuna Luso Compare

Top Goalscorer Tiago Bagagem
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.32
Avg xA / game 0.81

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castanhal 41 / 100
Tuna Luso 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castanhal Tuna Luso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Castanhal scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Tuna Luso let in goals in 67% of their last 36 matches.

Castanhal went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Castanhal VS Tuna Luso
0.6 Goals Scored 1.5
1.4 Goals Conceded 1.38
40% Over 1.5 88%
40% Over 2.5 50%
20% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Castanhal

(Home)
11 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 4
Nova Iguacu
07 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 1
Capitao Poco
28 Feb
Castanhal
1 : 0
Aguia De Maraba
25 Feb
Castanhal
2 : 1
Guarani
22 Feb
Paysandu PA
1 : 0
Castanhal
Page 1 of 6

Tuna Luso

(Away)
27 Jun
Iguatu
1 : 1
Tuna Luso
21 Jun
Tuna Luso
1 : 2
Iguatu
06 Jun
Imperatriz
4 : 0
Tuna Luso
31 May
Tuna Luso
1 : 0
Trem
24 May
Oratorio
3 : 3
Tuna Luso
Page 1 of 8

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Remo 2
Santa Rosa 0
Castanhal 3
Tuna Luso 4
Paysandu PA 2
Capitao Poco 0
Bragantino PA 0
Aguia De Maraba 1
Semi-finals
Remo 2
Tuna Luso 1
Paysandu PA 3
Aguia De Maraba 1
Final
Remo 4
Paysandu PA 3