Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Castanhal vs Tuna Luso

Brazil Brazil

Paraense Estádio Maximino Porpino Filho, Castanhal
Our Tip

Match Events

80' Event
Rangel P.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Tuna Luso in this Paraense matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tuna Luso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Castanhal
20%
Draws
38%
Tuna Luso
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Castanhal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Castanhal haven't matched Tuna Luso's recent run of results.
  • Castanhal are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Paraense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Castanhal Clean Sheet 16%
Tuna Luso Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castanhal Tuna Luso
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 10 14
Draws 8 7
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 0.6 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.60 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.40 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2026 Paraense
Castanhal vs Tuna Luso
0:1
Apr 6, 2025 Copa Grao Para
Tuna Luso vs Castanhal
2:1
Mar 30, 2025 Paraense
Castanhal vs Tuna Luso
3:4
Feb 16, 2025 Paraense
Castanhal vs Tuna Luso
2:2
Feb 4, 2024 Paraense
Castanhal vs Tuna Luso
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castanhal 41 / 100
Tuna Luso 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castanhal Tuna Luso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Castanhal scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Tuna Luso let in goals in 71% of their last 34 matches.

Recent resilience: Castanhal stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Castanhal VS Tuna Luso
0.6 Goals Scored 1.5
1.4 Goals Conceded 1.38
40% Over 1.5 88%
40% Over 2.5 50%
20% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Castanhal

(Home)
11 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 4
Nova Iguacu
07 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 1
Capitao Poco
28 Feb
Castanhal
1 : 0
Aguia De Maraba
25 Feb
Castanhal
2 : 1
Guarani
22 Feb
Paysandu PA
1 : 0
Castanhal
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Tuna Luso

(Away)
27 Jun
Iguatu
1 : 1
Tuna Luso
21 Jun
Tuna Luso
1 : 2
Iguatu
06 Jun
Imperatriz
4 : 0
Tuna Luso
31 May
Tuna Luso
1 : 0
Trem
24 May
Oratorio
3 : 3
Tuna Luso
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Cameta63218:411
2Capitao Poco63129:610
3Paysandu PA63126:410
4Aguia De Maraba63128:710
5Remo62409:510
6Tuna Luso63033:59
7Castanhal62224:58
8Santa Rosa62134:77
9Sao Raimundo PA61326:86
10Amazonia IFC61327:116
11Bragantino PA61236:75
12Sao Francisco61234:55
Promotion - Paraense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paraense A2 2027 (Main)