Sport Picks
Match Events
16'
16'
Alves J.
45'
45'
Sousa E.
75'
75'
Wendell
AI Match Summary
The Paraense 2025 game between Castanhal and Tuna Luso finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
44%
20%
36%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Castanhal
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Tuna Luso come out ahead of Castanhal on wins alone.
- 42% — that's where the model lands on Castanhal taking it.
- Regular Paraense 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Castanhal Clean Sheet 16%
Tuna Luso Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Castanhal | Tuna Luso |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 34 |
| Wins | 10 | 14 |
| Draws | 8 | 7 |
| Losses | 12 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.03 | 1.47 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.2 | 1.53 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.99 | 1.45 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 7, 2026 Paraense
Castanhal vs Tuna Luso
0:1
Apr 6, 2025 Copa Grao Para
Tuna Luso vs Castanhal
2:1
Mar 30, 2025 Paraense
Castanhal vs Tuna Luso
3:4
Feb 16, 2025 Paraense
Castanhal vs Tuna Luso
2:2
Feb 4, 2024 Paraense
Castanhal vs Tuna Luso
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Castanhal Compare
Top Goalscorer Wendell
1 Goals Assists Leader Bilau
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.76
Avg xA / game 0.49
Tuna Luso Compare
Top Goalscorer Alves J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Sousa E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.32
Avg xA / game 0.81
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Castanhal 41 / 100
Tuna Luso 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Castanhal Tuna Luso
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 3.80 goals.
Castanhal's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Tuna Luso has conceded goals in 71% of their last 34 outings.
Recent resilience: Castanhal stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Castanhal VS Tuna Luso
0.6 Goals Scored 1.5
1.4 Goals Conceded 1.38
40% Over 1.5 88%
40% Over 2.5 50%
20% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Castanhal
(Home) 11 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 4 Nova Iguacu
07 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 1 Capitao Poco
28 Feb
Castanhal
1 : 0 Aguia De Maraba
25 Feb
Castanhal
2 : 1 Guarani
22 Feb
Paysandu PA
1 : 0 Castanhal
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11 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 4 Nova Iguacu
07 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 1 Capitao Poco
28 Feb
Castanhal
1 : 0 Aguia De Maraba
25 Feb
Castanhal
2 : 1 Guarani
12 Feb
Castanhal
2 : 2 Remo
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Tuna Luso
(Away) 27 Jun
Iguatu
1 : 1 Tuna Luso
21 Jun
Tuna Luso
1 : 2 Iguatu
06 Jun
Imperatriz
4 : 0 Tuna Luso
31 May
Tuna Luso
1 : 0 Trem
24 May
Oratorio
3 : 3 Tuna Luso
Page 1 of 7
27 Jun
Iguatu
1 : 1 Tuna Luso
06 Jun
Imperatriz
4 : 0 Tuna Luso
24 May
Oratorio
3 : 3 Tuna Luso
02 May
Tocantinopolis
1 : 1 Tuna Luso
25 Apr
Aguia De Maraba
2 : 0 Tuna Luso
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Remo | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17:4 | 17 |
| 2 | Paysandu PA | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 3 | Bragantino PA | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11:6 | 17 |
| 4 | Castanhal | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10:7 | 13 |
| 5 | Tuna Luso | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12:12 | 11 |
| 6 | Aguia De Maraba | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:10 | 11 |
| 7 | Capitao Poco | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9:9 | 11 |
| 8 | Santa Rosa | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 7:9 | 10 |
| 9 | Cameta | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6:11 | 10 |
| 10 | Sao Francisco | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9:16 | 6 |
| 11 | Independente | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5:12 | 6 |
| 12 | Caete | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5:12 | 3 |
Promotion - Paraense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paraense A2 (Main)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paysandu PA | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 2 | Cameta | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6:11 | 10 |
| 3 | Sao Francisco | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9:16 | 6 |
| 4 | Caete | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5:12 | 3 |
Promotion - Paraense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paraense A2 (Main)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Remo | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17:4 | 17 |
| 2 | Bragantino PA | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11:6 | 17 |
| 3 | Castanhal | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10:7 | 13 |
| 4 | Independente | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5:12 | 6 |
Promotion - Paraense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paraense A2 (Main)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tuna Luso | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12:12 | 11 |
| 2 | Aguia De Maraba | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:10 | 11 |
| 3 | Capitao Poco | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9:9 | 11 |
| 4 | Santa Rosa | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 7:9 | 10 |
Promotion - Paraense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paraense A2 (Main)
