Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Castegnato vs Treviso

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group C 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

61' Event
Meola F.
64' Event
de Respinis A.
84' Event
Bertocchi A.

AI Match Summary

Treviso in this Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Treviso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

7%
Castegnato
35%
Draws
58%
Treviso
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Treviso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Castegnato haven't matched Treviso's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Treviso a 58% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Castegnato Clean Sheet 20%
Treviso Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castegnato Treviso
Matches Played 30 38
Wins 7 19
Draws 9 11
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 1.2 1.42
Goals Conceded 1.83 0.89
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 1.05
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 28, 2024 Serie D - Group C
Castegnato vs Treviso
1:2
Dec 16, 2023 Serie D - Group C
Treviso vs Castegnato
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castegnato Compare

Top Goalscorer Bertocchi A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Treviso Compare

Top Goalscorer Meola F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader de Respinis A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.58

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castegnato 10 / 100
Treviso 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castegnato Treviso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Treviso Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.50 goals when they meet.

Castegnato scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Treviso conceded in 58% of 38 recent games.

Solid form: Castegnato remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Treviso
0 Goals Scored 1
0 Goals Conceded 1.38
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Castegnato

(Home)
12 May
Luparense FC
2 : 0
Castegnato
05 May
Adriese
5 : 2
Castegnato
28 Apr
Castegnato
1 : 2
Treviso
21 Apr
Castegnato
1 : 4
Montecchio Maggiore
14 Apr
Chions
2 : 2
Castegnato
Page 1 of 6

Treviso

(Away)
21 Sept
Treviso
0 : 0
Desenzano Calvina
17 Sept
Union Brescia
2 : 2
Treviso
13 Sept
Treviso
2 : 1
Pro Vercelli
07 Sept
Alcione Milano
1 : 1
Treviso
31 Aug
Treviso
1 : 0
Lecco
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Clodiense 34 25 5 4 49:17 80
2 Dolomiti Bellunesi 34 19 9 6 56:25 66
3 Treviso 34 19 3 12 51:37 60
4 Bassano Virtus 34 15 9 10 35:30 54
5 Campodarsego 34 12 15 7 42:26 51
6 Este 34 13 12 9 44:33 51
7 Montecchio Maggiore 34 14 9 11 48:40 51
8 Adriese 34 13 11 10 54:41 50
9 Portogruaro 34 13 9 12 52:43 48
10 Mestre 34 13 9 12 34:37 48
11 Montebelluna 34 11 12 11 35:41 45
12 Chions 34 10 11 13 40:50 41
13 Luparense FC 34 10 9 15 38:41 39
14 Breno 34 8 13 13 39:49 37
15 Cjarlins Muzane 34 7 14 13 30:37 35
16 Castegnato 34 7 12 15 39:58 33
17 Virtus Bolzano 34 4 12 18 25:52 24
18 Mori 34 3 6 25 22:76 15
Promotion - Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 (Play Out)