Sport Picks
Castegnato vs Virtus Bolzano Prediction & H2H Stats
Italy
Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 
Match Events
29'
29'
Pesenti M.
56'
56'
Busetto E.
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 game between Castegnato and Virtus Bolzano finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
12%
15%
73%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Virtus Bolzano
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
12%
/ Low Confidence
- Virtus Bolzano haven't matched Castegnato's recent run of results.
- 12% — that's where the model lands on Castegnato taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 93%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Castegnato Clean Sheet 68%
Virtus Bolzano Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Castegnato | Virtus Bolzano |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 7 | 5 |
| Draws | 9 | 8 |
| Losses | 14 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.2 | 0.76 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.83 | 2.1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.94 | 1.77 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 7, 2024 Serie D - Group C
Castegnato vs Virtus Bolzano
1:1
Nov 26, 2023 Serie D - Group C
Virtus Bolzano vs Castegnato
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Castegnato Compare
Top Goalscorer Pesenti M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97
Virtus Bolzano Compare
Top Goalscorer Busetto E.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.61
Avg xA / game 0.98
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Castegnato 50 / 100
Virtus Bolzano 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Castegnato Virtus Bolzano
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Castegnato Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Virtus Bolzano's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 29 matches.
Castegnato found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).
Games between these two average 2.00 goals.
Virtus Bolzano lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Castegnato VS Virtus Bolzano
1 Goals Scored 1.25
2.29 Goals Conceded 2.88
86% Over 1.5 100%
57% Over 2.5 63%
43% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Castegnato
(Home) 12 May
Luparense FC
2 : 0 Castegnato
05 May
Adriese
5 : 2 Castegnato
28 Apr
Castegnato
1 : 2 Treviso
21 Apr
Castegnato
1 : 4 Montecchio Maggiore
14 Apr
Chions
2 : 2 Castegnato
Page 1 of 6
28 Apr
Castegnato
1 : 2 Treviso
21 Apr
Castegnato
1 : 4 Montecchio Maggiore
07 Apr
Castegnato
1 : 1 Virtus Bolzano
23 Mar
Castegnato
1 : 2 Portogruaro
10 Mar
Castegnato
3 : 2 Mestre
Page 1 of 3
Virtus Bolzano
(Away) 27 Sept
Altavilla
7 : 0 Virtus Bolzano
20 Sept
Virtus Bolzano
2 : 1 Calcio San Dona
16 Sept
Luparense FC
4 : 0 Virtus Bolzano
13 Sept
Virtus Bolzano
2 : 1 Brian Lignano
06 Sept
Clodiense
2 : 0 Virtus Bolzano
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Altavilla
7 : 0 Virtus Bolzano
16 Sept
Luparense FC
4 : 0 Virtus Bolzano
06 Sept
Clodiense
2 : 0 Virtus Bolzano
25 Jul
Modena
5 : 0 Virtus Bolzano
13 Aug
Sudtirol
10 : 0 Virtus Bolzano
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clodiense | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 49:17 | 80 |
| 2 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 56:25 | 66 |
| 3 | Treviso | 34 | 19 | 3 | 12 | 51:37 | 60 |
| 4 | Bassano Virtus | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 35:30 | 54 |
| 5 | Campodarsego | 34 | 12 | 15 | 7 | 42:26 | 51 |
| 6 | Este | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 44:33 | 51 |
| 7 | Montecchio Maggiore | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 48:40 | 51 |
| 8 | Adriese | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 54:41 | 50 |
| 9 | Portogruaro | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 52:43 | 48 |
| 10 | Mestre | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 34:37 | 48 |
| 11 | Montebelluna | 34 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 35:41 | 45 |
| 12 | Chions | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 40:50 | 41 |
| 13 | Luparense FC | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 38:41 | 39 |
| 14 | Breno | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 39:49 | 37 |
| 15 | Cjarlins Muzane | 34 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 30:37 | 35 |
| 16 | Castegnato | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 39:58 | 33 |
| 17 | Virtus Bolzano | 34 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 25:52 | 24 |
| 18 | Mori | 34 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 22:76 | 15 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 (Play Out)
