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Castelfidardo vs Avezzano

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Boccaccini M.

AI Match Summary

Castelfidardo in this Serie D - Group F 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Castelfidardo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%
Castelfidardo
20%
Draws
65%
Avezzano
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Avezzano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Castelfidardo haven't matched Avezzano's recent run of results.
  • 65% — that's where the model lands on Avezzano taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Castelfidardo Clean Sheet 20%
Avezzano Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castelfidardo Avezzano
Matches Played 38 30
Wins 10 13
Draws 7 7
Losses 21 10
Goals Scored 1.03 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.68 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 17, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Avezzano vs Castelfidardo
4:0
Dec 8, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Castelfidardo vs Avezzano
1:0
Jan 16, 2019 Serie D - Group F
Castelfidardo vs Avezzano
0:3
Sep 26, 2018 Serie D - Group F
Avezzano vs Castelfidardo
5:1
Mar 11, 2018 Serie D - Group F
Castelfidardo vs Avezzano
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castelfidardo Compare

Top Goalscorer Boccaccini M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

Avezzano Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castelfidardo 10 / 100
Avezzano 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castelfidardo Avezzano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Avezzano Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Castelfidardo scored in 68% of their last 38 outings.

Defensive concern: Avezzano conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

Castelfidardo has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Castelfidardo VS -
0.75 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Castelfidardo

(Home)
03 May
Castelfidardo
0 : 2
AS Sora
26 Apr
Fossombrone
3 : 1
Castelfidardo
19 Apr
Castelfidardo
1 : 3
Vigor Senigallia
12 Apr
Giulianova
0 : 0
Castelfidardo
02 Apr
Castelfidardo
2 : 2
Maceratese
Page 1 of 8

Avezzano

(Away)
04 May
Avezzano
4 : 0
Ancona
27 Apr
Isernia
3 : 2
Avezzano
17 Apr
Avezzano
4 : 0
Castelfidardo
13 Apr
Avezzano
2 : 1
Fossombrone
06 Apr
Fermana
2 : 0
Avezzano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sambenedettese 34 21 9 4 61:21 72
2 Aquila Calcio 34 17 11 6 48:31 62
3 Teramo 34 17 9 8 51:33 60
4 Calcio Chieti 34 16 11 7 52:39 58
5 Fossombrone 34 12 14 8 44:36 50
6 Ancona 34 13 8 13 35:40 47
7 Avezzano 34 13 7 14 41:43 46
8 Castelfidardo 34 12 9 13 39:34 45
9 Atletico Ascoli 34 10 13 11 35:39 43
10 Vigor Senigallia 34 9 15 10 36:38 42
11 Termoli 34 9 14 11 37:44 41
12 Recanatese 34 10 10 14 42:53 40
13 AS Sora 34 9 13 12 32:39 40
14 Notaresco Calcio 34 10 8 16 37:45 38
15 Civitanovese Calcio 34 8 13 13 31:39 37
16 Roma City 34 8 11 15 32:36 35
17 Isernia 34 8 10 16 32:57 34
18 Fermana 34 6 11 17 24:42 27
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2024/2025 (Play Out)