Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
Castelfidardo play Fossombrone in the Serie D - Group F. It looks like a close match. Recently, Castelfidardo averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. Fossombrone averaged 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. In past meetings, Castelfidardo won 2, Fossombrone won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 26, 2026 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Castelfidardo and 1.19 for Fossombrone. This points to a Fossombrone double chance or over markets.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Fossombrone has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Castelfidardo.
- Model forecasts a 40% win probability edge for Fossombrone.
- League standings and seasonal metrics in Serie D - Group F provide steady trend data.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Castelfidardo | Fossombrone |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 6 | 10 |
| Draws | 5 | 7 |
| Losses | 19 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 0.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.63 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.63 | 1.25 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Castelfidardo Compare
Fossombrone Compare
Sokapicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Sokapicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Castelfidardo scored in 70% of their last 30 games.
Fossombrone let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.
Games between these two average 2.25 goals.
Castelfidardo went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Fossombrone lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ostiamare | 34 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 65:25 | 79 |
| 2 | Ancona | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 59:22 | 76 |
| 3 | Teramo | 34 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 65:29 | 74 |
| 4 | Atletico Ascoli | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 55:35 | 55 |
| 5 | Notaresco Calcio | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 43:31 | 51 |
| 6 | Aquila Calcio | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 53:44 | 51 |
| 7 | Giulianova | 34 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 40:31 | 49 |
| 8 | Vigor Senigallia | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 45:40 | 49 |
| 9 | Fossombrone | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 28:34 | 44 |
| 10 | Unipomezia | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 43:42 | 42 |
| 11 | Termoli | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 27:30 | 39 |
| 12 | Maceratese | 34 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 43:49 | 38 |
| 13 | AS Sora | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40:50 | 38 |
| 14 | Recanatese | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39:57 | 32 |
| 15 | San Marino Calcio | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 33:61 | 31 |
| 16 | Calcio Chieti | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 31:55 | 24 |
| 17 | Castelfidardo | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 30:65 | 23 |
| 18 | Sammaurese | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 30:69 | 20 |