Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Castelfidardo vs Monticelli

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2017/2018
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Monticelli in this Serie D - Group F 2017/2018 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Monticelli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Castelfidardo
30%
Draws
54%
Monticelli
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Monticelli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Castelfidardo have won more games recently than Monticelli.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F 2017/2018 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Castelfidardo Clean Sheet 20%
Monticelli Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castelfidardo Monticelli
Matches Played 38 30
Wins 10 5
Draws 5 13
Losses 23 12
Goals Scored 1.05 0.7
Goals Conceded 1.74 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 29, 2018 Serie D - Group F
Monticelli vs Castelfidardo
1:0
Dec 10, 2017 Serie D - Group F
Castelfidardo vs Monticelli
1:2
Jan 8, 2017 Serie D - Group F
Monticelli vs Castelfidardo
1:0
Sep 4, 2016 Serie D - Group F
Castelfidardo vs Monticelli
0:0
Feb 28, 2016 Serie D - Group F
Castelfidardo vs Monticelli
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castelfidardo 36 / 100
Monticelli 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castelfidardo Monticelli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Monticelli Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castelfidardo found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (38 games).

Defensive concern: Monticelli conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.20 goals per match.

Solid form: Castelfidardo remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Castelfidardo VS -
0.75 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Castelfidardo

(Home)
03 May
Castelfidardo
0 : 2
AS Sora
26 Apr
Fossombrone
3 : 1
Castelfidardo
19 Apr
Castelfidardo
1 : 3
Vigor Senigallia
12 Apr
Giulianova
0 : 0
Castelfidardo
02 Apr
Castelfidardo
2 : 2
Maceratese
Page 1 of 8

Monticelli

(Away)
06 May
ASD Francavilla
2 : 1
Monticelli
29 Apr
Monticelli
1 : 0
Castelfidardo
22 Apr
Agnonese
6 : 0
Monticelli
15 Apr
Monticelli
1 : 1
Nerostellati Pratola
08 Apr
Fabriano Cerreto
1 : 2
Monticelli
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vis Pesaro 34 23 4 7 61:29 73
2 Matelica 34 22 5 7 66:28 71
3 Avezzano 34 16 14 4 51:26 62
4 Pineto 34 15 12 7 53:41 57
5 Aquila Calcio 34 15 10 9 57:40 55
6 ASD Francavilla 34 14 11 9 47:38 53
7 San Marino Calcio 34 15 6 13 45:35 51
8 Vastese 34 15 6 13 55:50 51
9 Sangiustese 34 13 9 12 39:41 48
10 Campobasso 34 13 10 11 41:40 45
11 Castelfidardo 34 12 8 14 43:54 44
12 Recanatese 34 12 7 15 47:47 43
13 Agnonese 34 11 8 15 34:35 41
14 Notaresco Calcio 34 11 7 16 42:51 40
15 Jesina 34 8 10 16 32:46 34
16 Monticelli 34 5 15 14 25:45 30
17 Fabriano Cerreto 34 5 5 24 29:69 20
18 Nerostellati Pratola 34 3 9 22 19:71 18
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2017/2018 (Winners stage)
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2017/2018 (Play Offs)