Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group B 2014/2015 game between Castellana and Aurora Seriate finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aurora Seriate.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
20%
51%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Aurora Seriate
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Aurora Seriate come out ahead of Castellana on wins alone.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Castellana Clean Sheet 18%
Aurora Seriate Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Castellana | Aurora Seriate |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 7 | 12 |
| Draws | 7 | 6 |
| Losses | 16 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 0.97 | 1.27 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.6 | 1.23 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 25, 2015 Serie D - Group B
Aurora Seriate vs Castellana
0:1
Nov 12, 2014 Serie D - Group B
Castellana vs Aurora Seriate
0:2
Jan 12, 2014 Serie D - Group B
Aurora Seriate vs Castellana
2:1
Sep 8, 2013 Serie D - Group B
Castellana vs Aurora Seriate
1:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Castellana 32 / 100
Aurora Seriate 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Castellana Aurora Seriate
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Aurora Seriate Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Castellana found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).
Aurora Seriate's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.
H2H data points to 1.75 goals as a typical output.
Castellana has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Castellana VS Aurora Seriate
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Castellana
(Home) 10 May
Castellana
1 : 2 Villafranca
03 May
Olginatese
5 : 0 Castellana
26 Apr
Castellana
1 : 1 Ciliverghe Mazzano
19 Apr
Pro Sesto
2 : 3 Castellana
12 Apr
Castellana
0 : 2 FC Castiglione
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10 May
Castellana
1 : 2 Villafranca
26 Apr
Castellana
1 : 1 Ciliverghe Mazzano
12 Apr
Castellana
0 : 2 FC Castiglione
29 Mar
Castellana
1 : 1 Ponte San Pietro
15 Mar
Castellana
1 : 3 Virtus Verona
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Aurora Seriate
(Away) 10 May
Aurora Seriate
0 : 1 Olginatese
03 May
Ciliverghe Mazzano
1 : 3 Aurora Seriate
26 Apr
Aurora Seriate
1 : 0 Pro Sesto
19 Apr
FC Castiglione
2 : 2 Aurora Seriate
12 Apr
Aurora Seriate
0 : 1 Seregno Calcio
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03 May
Ciliverghe Mazzano
1 : 3 Aurora Seriate
19 Apr
FC Castiglione
2 : 2 Aurora Seriate
02 Apr
Ponte San Pietro
3 : 2 Aurora Seriate
21 Mar
Virtus Verona
2 : 2 Aurora Seriate
08 Mar
Caravaggio
0 : 1 Aurora Seriate
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Castiglione | 36 | 22 | 8 | 6 | 54:26 | 74 |
| 2 | Lecco | 36 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 65:42 | 66 |
| 3 | Seregno Calcio | 36 | 20 | 5 | 11 | 64:37 | 65 |
| 4 | Ciserano | 36 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 53:39 | 60 |
| 5 | Virtus Verona | 36 | 15 | 14 | 7 | 58:34 | 59 |
| 6 | Pergolettese | 36 | 15 | 10 | 11 | 46:44 | 55 |
| 7 | Olginatese | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 44:34 | 54 |
| 8 | Ponte San Pietro | 36 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 50:42 | 52 |
| 9 | Ciliverghe Mazzano | 36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 37:40 | 51 |
| 10 | Sondrio | 36 | 15 | 6 | 15 | 46:50 | 51 |
| 11 | Aurora Seriate | 36 | 14 | 8 | 14 | 42:43 | 50 |
| 12 | Inveruno | 36 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 47:48 | 49 |
| 13 | Villafranca | 36 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 44:49 | 47 |
| 14 | MapelloBonate | 36 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 36:48 | 47 |
| 15 | Pro Sesto | 36 | 13 | 8 | 15 | 38:41 | 47 |
| 16 | Caravaggio | 36 | 11 | 8 | 17 | 37:42 | 41 |
| 17 | Folgore Caratese | 36 | 7 | 16 | 13 | 34:40 | 37 |
| 18 | Castellana | 36 | 7 | 9 | 20 | 36:61 | 30 |
| 19 | Montichiari | 36 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 26:97 | 5 |
Promotion - Serie D - Winners stage 2014/2015 (Main)
Promotion - Serie D - Play Offs (Main)
Promotion - Serie D - Play Offs (Main)
Promotion - Serie D - Play Offs (Main)
Promotion - Serie D - Play Offs (Main)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2014/2015 (Play Out)
