Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Castellanzese vs Magenta

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Toldo A.
15' Event
Gatelli L.
(Penalty)
20' Event
Chessa M.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Magenta in this Serie D - Group B 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Magenta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Castellanzese
20%
Draws
46%
Magenta
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Magenta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Castellanzese lately — more wins on the board than Magenta.
  • Win probability leans Castellanzese's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Castellanzese Clean Sheet 68%
Magenta Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castellanzese Magenta
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 6
Draws 7 10
Losses 15 14
Goals Scored 1.07 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 23, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Magenta
1:3
Oct 23, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Magenta vs Castellanzese
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castellanzese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Magenta Compare

Top Goalscorer Toldo A.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castellanzese 59 / 100
Magenta 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castellanzese Magenta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castellanzese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castellanzese's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Magenta has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Castellanzese stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Castellanzese VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Castellanzese

(Home)
20 Sept
Solbiatese
1 : 4
Castellanzese
16 Sept
Castellanzese
0 : 1
Oltrepo
12 Sept
Lentigione
1 : 0
Castellanzese
06 Sept
Castellanzese
3 : 1
US Pontedera
10 May
Castellanzese
1 : 2
Varesina
Page 1 of 6

Magenta

(Away)
04 May
Varesina
1 : 1
Magenta
27 Apr
Magenta
2 : 0
Sant'Angelo
17 Apr
Chievo
4 : 0
Magenta
13 Apr
Magenta
0 : 0
Sangiuliano City
06 Apr
Breno
1 : 3
Magenta
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ospitaletto 38 21 12 5 66:34 75
2 Pro Palazzolo 38 20 10 8 69:36 70
3 Desenzano Calvina 38 19 12 7 51:29 69
4 USD Casatese 38 19 11 8 58:34 68
5 Folgore Caratese 38 20 8 10 66:42 68
6 Varesina 38 17 13 8 61:44 64
7 Chievo 38 16 9 13 49:37 57
8 Pro Sesto 38 13 13 12 45:43 52
9 Club Milano 38 14 7 17 44:50 49
10 Sant'Angelo 38 11 15 12 41:41 48
11 Sondrio 38 12 11 15 39:51 47
12 Breno 38 11 14 13 42:53 47
13 Castellanzese 38 10 16 12 43:53 46
14 Vigasio 38 11 12 15 39:41 45
15 Sangiuliano City 38 11 12 15 39:46 45
16 Crema 38 11 11 16 48:57 44
17 Magenta 38 8 12 18 33:53 36
18 Fanfulla 38 6 14 18 28:57 32
19 Ciliverghe Mazzano 38 7 10 21 41:70 31
20 Arconatese 38 7 10 21 33:64 31
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2024/2025 (Play Offs)