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Stadium Background

Castellanzese vs Vogherese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Chessa M.

AI Match Summary

Castellanzese in this Serie D - Group B matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Castellanzese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Castellanzese
6%
Draws
4%
Vogherese
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Castellanzese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Castellanzese lately — more wins on the board than Vogherese.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Castellanzese taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Castellanzese Clean Sheet 68%
Vogherese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castellanzese Vogherese
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 2
Draws 8 6
Losses 13 22
Goals Scored 0.88 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.13 3.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 3.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Vogherese
1:0
Oct 26, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Vogherese vs Castellanzese
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castellanzese Compare

Top Goalscorer Chessa M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Vogherese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castellanzese 95 / 100
Vogherese 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castellanzese Vogherese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Vogherese conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

Vogherese lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Castellanzese scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Castellanzese went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Castellanzese VS Vogherese
0.88 Goals Scored 0.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 3.5
38% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Castellanzese

(Home)
10 May
Castellanzese
1 : 2
Varesina
03 May
Ciserano-Bergamo
1 : 1
Castellanzese
26 Apr
Castellanzese
1 : 3
AC Milan U23
19 Apr
Chievo
2 : 2
Castellanzese
12 Apr
Castellanzese
1 : 0
AC Leon
Page 1 of 6

Vogherese

(Away)
03 May
AC Milan U23
10 : 1
Vogherese
26 Apr
Vogherese
0 : 6
Caldiero Terme
19 Apr
Ciserano-Bergamo
6 : 1
Vogherese
11 Apr
Vogherese
0 : 4
USD Casatese
02 Apr
Chievo
4 : 1
Vogherese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Folgore Caratese341911458:2768
2USD Casatese341613549:2861
3Chievo341861052:4360
4AC Milan U23341681062:3756
5AC Leon341411944:3453
6Brusaporto341561341:3851
7Oltrepo341581138:3650
8Scanzorosciate341114941:3347
9Villa Valle341381343:4647
10Ciserano-Bergamo3411131033:3146
11Caldiero Terme341015950:4045
12Real Calepina341191442:4742
13Castellanzese3410111341:3941
14Breno349111439:5138
15Pavia349101536:4737
16Varesina347151238:4436
17Sondrio34871937:6431
18Vogherese34282421:80-17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B (Play Out)