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Castellonense vs La Nucia

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 6
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Garijo I.
54' Event
Garijo I.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 6 game between Castellonense and La Nucia finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Castellonense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Castellonense
44%
Draws
20%
La Nucia
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Castellonense come out ahead of La Nucia on wins alone.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 6 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Castellonense Clean Sheet 16%
La Nucia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castellonense La Nucia
Matches Played 30 35
Wins 19 17
Draws 5 13
Losses 6 5
Goals Scored 1.43 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.29 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.43 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.29 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 6
Castellonense vs La Nucia
2:0
Nov 23, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 6
La Nucia vs Castellonense
0:2
May 25, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 6
La Nucia vs Castellonense
1:2
May 17, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 6
Castellonense vs La Nucia
0:0
Apr 6, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 6
Castellonense vs La Nucia
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castellonense Compare

Top Goalscorer Garijo I.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.1
Avg xA / game 0.71

La Nucia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castellonense 36 / 100
La Nucia 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castellonense La Nucia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LAN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castellonense scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

La Nucia has conceded goals in 49% of their last 35 outings.

Recent resilience: Castellonense stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Castellonense VS La Nucia
1.43 Goals Scored 1.63
1.29 Goals Conceded 0.63
71% Over 1.5 75%
43% Over 2.5 38%
29% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Castellonense

(Home)
09 May
Castellonense
0 : 1
Atzeneta
02 May
Hercules B
1 : 4
Castellonense
26 Apr
Castellonense
1 : 1
Atletico Saguntino
18 Apr
Castellonense
2 : 3
Ontinyent 1931 CF
12 Apr
Villarreal C
3 : 0
Castellonense
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La Nucia

(Away)
20 Jun
La Nucia
1 : 0
Trival Valderas
14 Jun
Trival Valderas
0 : 0
La Nucia
07 Jun
Levante B
1 : 1
La Nucia
31 May
La Nucia
1 : 0
Levante B
24 May
Atletico Saguntino
1 : 0
La Nucia
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Castellonense34207756:3067
2Atletico Saguntino34206850:3066
3Levante B341811554:2665
4Villarreal C34196963:3663
5La Nucia341613544:2661
6CD Bunol3413111034:4050
7Vall de Uxo3413101131:2949
8Ontinyent 1931 CF341391232:3048
9Torrellano341381340:3847
10Soneja341361535:4245
11Hercules B3410111331:4641
12Roda341171632:4540
13Crevillente349111444:4938
14Jove341081635:4438
15Atzeneta341071729:3937
16Utiel347101730:4531
17Alzira347101732:4931
18Recambios Colon342131927:5519
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 6 (Play Offs)