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Castilleja CF vs CD Utrera

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Tercera RFEF - Group 10 2025/2026
Castilleja CF Logo

Castilleja CF

2 - 1
FT
CD Utrera Logo

CD Utrera

Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Troncoso Espinar M.
49' Event
Rico A.
72' Event
Cazorla A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Castilleja CF in this Tercera RFEF - Group 10 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Castilleja CF.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Castilleja CF
15%
Draws
64%
CD Utrera
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: CD Utrera

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • CD Utrera have won more games recently than Castilleja CF.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 10 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Castilleja CF Clean Sheet 19%
CD Utrera Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castilleja CF CD Utrera
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 6 12
Draws 7 7
Losses 17 9
Goals Scored 0.93 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Castilleja CF vs CD Utrera
2:1
Nov 16, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
CD Utrera vs Castilleja CF
2:2
Apr 4, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
CD Utrera vs Castilleja CF
1:0
Jan 10, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Castilleja CF vs CD Utrera
1:3
Aug 1, 2019 Club Friendly
Castilleja CF vs CD Utrera
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castilleja CF Compare

Top Goalscorer Troncoso Espinar M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cazorla A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

CD Utrera Compare

Top Goalscorer Rico A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castilleja CF 32 / 100
CD Utrera 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castilleja CF CD Utrera

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CD Utrera Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: CD Utrera conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

Castilleja CF found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (30 games).

Castilleja CF went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Castilleja CF VS CD Utrera
1 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Castilleja CF

(Home)
06 May
Castilleja CF
0 : 2
Coria C.F.
03 May
AD Ceuta B
2 : 2
Castilleja CF
26 Apr
Castilleja CF
0 : 1
Cordoba B
19 Apr
Chiclana
1 : 0
Castilleja CF
12 Apr
Castilleja CF
3 : 1
Conil
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CD Utrera

(Away)
13 Sept
CD Utrera
2 : 0
Conil
06 Sept
Dos Hermanas
3 : 0
CD Utrera
10 May
Bollullos
1 : 2
CD Utrera
03 May
CD Utrera
1 : 0
Sevilla C
26 Apr
Linense
0 : 1
CD Utrera
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ciudad de Lucena 34 22 7 5 69:25 73
2 Dos Hermanas 34 18 6 10 69:39 60
3 Atletico Central 34 15 10 9 36:29 55
4 Bollullos 34 14 11 9 43:35 53
5 AD Ceuta B 34 14 10 10 38:38 52
6 Linense 34 13 13 8 45:32 52
7 Cadiz B 34 14 10 10 50:38 52
8 Conil 34 15 7 12 43:44 52
9 Cordoba B 34 12 8 14 44:44 44
10 CD Utrera 34 12 8 14 40:47 44
11 Pozoblanco 34 10 13 11 39:44 43
12 Chiclana 34 10 13 11 39:45 43
13 San Roque de Lepe 34 10 13 11 39:39 43
14 Atl. Onubense (Huelva B) 34 10 10 14 36:43 40
15 Tomares UD 34 10 9 15 34:46 39
16 Sevilla C 34 10 8 16 34:41 38
17 Castilleja CF 34 6 9 19 28:62 27
18 Coria C.F. 34 4 9 21 24:59 21
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 10 2025/2026 (Play Offs)