Sport Picks

Portugal

Taça de Portugal 2023/2024

Penedo Gordo

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Castrense play Penedo Gordo in the Taça de Portugal 2023/2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Castrense averaged 0.87 goals scored and 1.77 conceded. Penedo Gordo averaged 0.5 goals scored and 0.75 conceded. In past meetings, Castrense won 1, Penedo Gordo won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Sep 10, 2023 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.69 for Castrense and 1.13 for Penedo Gordo. This points to a Castrense double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%

Castrense

26%

Draws

26%

Penedo Gordo

Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Castrense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence

Castrense picked up more points recently compared to Penedo Gordo.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.69 vs 1.13 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 60%

Over 2.5 Goals 43%

Over 3.5 Goals 26%

Over 4.5 Goals 13%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40%

Castrense Clean Sheet 21%

Penedo Gordo Clean Sheet 20%

First Half Goal 54%

Second Half Goal 57%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Castrense	Penedo Gordo
Matches Played	30	4
Wins	6	1
Draws	9	0
Losses	15	3
Goals Scored	0.87	0.5
Goals Conceded	1.77	0.75
Expected Goals (xG)	0.63	0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 10, 2023 Taça de Portugal

Castrense vs Penedo Gordo

Possession: 44% - 56% Cards: 2 - 3

1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castrense 47 / 100

Penedo Gordo 27 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Castrense Penedo Gordo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Castrense or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +20%

2.50

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +16.1%

2.70

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Castrense attacking → ← attacking Penedo Gordo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castrense scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Penedo Gordo let in goals in 75% of their last 4 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Castrense went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Penedo Gordo lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

27 Points in last 5 3

0.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.50

1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75