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Castro vs CD Barquereno

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Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026
Castro Logo

Castro

2 - 1
FT
CD Barquereno Logo

CD Barquereno

Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Revilla A.
55' Event
Martins C.
73' Event
Diez J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 game between Castro and CD Barquereno finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Castro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Castro
35%
Draws
16%
CD Barquereno
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Castro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Castro come out ahead of CD Barquereno on wins alone.
  • 49% — that's where the model lands on Castro taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Castro Clean Sheet 68%
CD Barquereno Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castro CD Barquereno
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 11 7
Draws 7 6
Losses 14 16
Goals Scored 1.28 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Castro vs CD Barquereno
2:1
Oct 19, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
CD Barquereno vs Castro
0:0
Jan 26, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Castro vs CD Barquereno
2:0
Sep 15, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
CD Barquereno vs Castro
0:0
May 22, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Castro vs CD Barquereno
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castro Compare

Top Goalscorer Martins C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Diez J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

CD Barquereno Compare

Top Goalscorer Revilla A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castro 95 / 100
CD Barquereno 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castro CD Barquereno

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castro Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castro scored in 66% of their last 32 games.

CD Barquereno has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Castro has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Castro VS CD Barquereno
0.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Castro

(Home)
19 Sept
CD Revilla
2 : 2
Castro
13 Sept
Castro
2 : 0
Solares
06 Sept
Selaya
0 : 0
Castro
09 May
Castro
0 : 2
CD Tropezon
03 May
UC Cartes
0 : 0
Castro
Page 1 of 7

CD Barquereno

(Away)
20 Sept
Torina
3 : 0
CD Barquereno
13 Sept
CD Barquereno
0 : 1
Velarde
05 Sept
UD Samano
2 : 2
CD Barquereno
09 May
CD Barquereno
1 : 5
Gimnastic de Torrelavega
03 May
CD Revilla
1 : 1
CD Barquereno
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gimnastic de Torrelavega 34 26 5 3 86:15 83
2 CD Laredo 34 21 8 5 63:28 71
3 CD Tropezon 34 21 4 9 50:27 67
4 Guarnizo 34 19 9 6 47:26 66
5 UM Escobedo 34 21 2 11 65:43 65
6 Vimenor 34 17 8 9 47:36 59
7 Atletico Albericia 34 17 5 12 61:45 56
8 Cayon CD 34 17 5 12 50:41 56
9 Torina 34 15 8 11 39:40 53
10 Bezana 34 13 8 13 43:38 47
11 Castro 34 10 8 16 44:47 38
12 Selaya 34 8 8 18 32:44 32
13 CD Revilla 34 8 7 19 35:63 31
14 CD Barquereno 34 8 6 20 37:64 30
15 UC Cartes 34 6 10 18 28:52 28
16 CD Colindres 34 6 10 18 27:47 28
17 CD Montanas del Pas 34 6 8 20 35:87 26
18 SD Noja 34 4 7 23 22:68 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 (Play Offs)