Sport Picks
Match Events
44'
44'
Cobo F.
83'
83'
Martinez X.
AI Match Summary
CD Tropezon in this Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored CD Tropezon.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
7%
20%
73%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: CD Tropezon
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
73%
/ High Confidence
- Castro haven't matched CD Tropezon's recent run of results.
- Model gives CD Tropezon a 73% chance of winning this.
- Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- CD Tropezon have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Castro Clean Sheet 17%
CD Tropezon Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Castro | CD Tropezon |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 33 |
| Wins | 10 | 19 |
| Draws | 6 | 5 |
| Losses | 14 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.2 | 1.39 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.37 | 0.79 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.63 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 9, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Castro vs CD Tropezon
0:2
Jan 11, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
CD Tropezon vs Castro
3:1
May 24, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
CD Tropezon vs Castro
2:0
May 18, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Castro vs CD Tropezon
0:1
Jan 19, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
CD Tropezon vs Castro
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Castro Compare
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32
CD Tropezon Compare
Top Goalscorer Cobo F.
1 Goals Assists Leader Martinez X.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Castro 15 / 100
CD Tropezon 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Castro CD Tropezon
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick CD Tropezon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Castro scored in 63% of their last 30 games.
Games between these two average 2.00 goals.
CD Tropezon let in goals in 52% of their last 33 matches.
Castro has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Castro VS CD Tropezon
0.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.5
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Castro
(Home) 09 May
Castro
0 : 2 CD Tropezon
03 May
UC Cartes
0 : 0 Castro
26 Apr
Castro
2 : 3 Gimnastic de Torrelavega
18 Apr
CD Revilla
2 : 1 Castro
12 Apr
Castro
0 : 1 Guarnizo
Page 1 of 6
09 May
Castro
0 : 2 CD Tropezon
26 Apr
Castro
2 : 3 Gimnastic de Torrelavega
12 Apr
Castro
0 : 1 Guarnizo
29 Mar
Castro
3 : 1 Selaya
15 Mar
Castro
2 : 2 Bezana
Page 1 of 4
CD Tropezon
(Away) 20 Jun
Arnedo
2 : 0 CD Tropezon
13 Jun
CD Tropezon
1 : 0 Arnedo
06 Jun
CD Laredo
0 : 1 CD Tropezon
31 May
CD Tropezon
0 : 0 CD Laredo
24 May
CD Tropezon
3 : 0 Guarnizo
Page 1 of 7
20 Jun
Arnedo
2 : 0 CD Tropezon
06 Jun
CD Laredo
0 : 1 CD Tropezon
17 May
Guarnizo
0 : 0 CD Tropezon
09 May
Castro
0 : 2 CD Tropezon
25 Apr
CD Montanas del Pas
2 : 0 CD Tropezon
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gimnastic de Torrelavega | 34 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 86:15 | 83 |
| 2 | CD Laredo | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 63:28 | 71 |
| 3 | CD Tropezon | 34 | 21 | 4 | 9 | 50:27 | 67 |
| 4 | Guarnizo | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 47:26 | 66 |
| 5 | UM Escobedo | 34 | 21 | 2 | 11 | 65:43 | 65 |
| 6 | Vimenor | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 47:36 | 59 |
| 7 | Atletico Albericia | 34 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 61:45 | 56 |
| 8 | Cayon CD | 34 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 50:41 | 56 |
| 9 | Torina | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 39:40 | 53 |
| 10 | Bezana | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 43:38 | 47 |
| 11 | Castro | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 44:47 | 38 |
| 12 | Selaya | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 32:44 | 32 |
| 13 | CD Revilla | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 35:63 | 31 |
| 14 | CD Barquereno | 34 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 37:64 | 30 |
| 15 | UC Cartes | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 28:52 | 28 |
| 16 | CD Colindres | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 27:47 | 28 |
| 17 | CD Montanas del Pas | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 35:87 | 26 |
| 18 | SD Noja | 34 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 22:68 | 19 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
