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Castrovillari vs Akragas Prediction & H2H Stats

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Serie D - Group I 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Cosenza C.
(Penalty)
45' Event
Baio B.
77' Event

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 game between Castrovillari and Akragas finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Akragas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Castrovillari
20%
Draws
16%
Akragas
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Castrovillari

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

16% / Low Confidence
  • Akragas carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Akragas are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Castrovillari Clean Sheet 26%
Akragas Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castrovillari Akragas
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 2 6
Draws 12 6
Losses 14 16
Goals Scored 0.89 1.04
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 0.80
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2024 Serie D - Group I
Akragas vs Castrovillari
5:1
Oct 4, 2023 Serie D - Group I
Castrovillari vs Akragas
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castrovillari Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74

Akragas Compare

Top Goalscorer Baio B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.73
Avg xA / game 0.44

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castrovillari 30 / 100
Akragas 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castrovillari Akragas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Akragas Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Akragas conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.

H2H data points to 4.50 goals as a typical output.

Castrovillari scored in 64% of their last 28 games.

Akragas lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Akragas
0 Goals Scored 0.5
0 Goals Conceded 1.75
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Castrovillari

(Home)
05 May
Castrovillari
0 : 2
Nuova Gioiese
28 Apr
Licata
3 : 1
Castrovillari
21 Apr
Castrovillari
1 : 1
Portici 1906
14 Apr
Siracusa
3 : 1
Castrovillari
07 Apr
Castrovillari
2 : 1
San Luca
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Akragas

(Away)
09 Mar
Reggina
2 : 0
Akragas
02 Mar
Akragas
0 : 0
AS Acireale
23 Feb
USD Ragusa
3 : 0
Akragas
16 Feb
Akragas
1 : 2
S. Agata
09 Feb
Scafatese
3 : 1
Akragas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Trapani 34 30 4 0 95:15 94
2 Siracusa 34 25 6 3 79:26 81
3 Vibonese 34 22 6 6 67:29 72
4 Reggina 34 19 8 7 54:25 65
5 AS Acireale 34 15 9 10 39:41 54
6 S. Agata 34 15 7 12 46:35 52
7 Real Casalnuovo 34 15 6 13 52:49 51
8 USD Ragusa 34 14 8 12 41:38 50
9 Canicatti 34 14 6 14 55:51 48
10 Igea Virtus 34 13 6 15 38:40 45
11 Licata 34 12 7 15 43:54 43
12 Akragas 34 12 6 16 42:53 42
13 Sancataldese 34 9 10 15 32:43 37
14 Portici 1906 34 8 8 18 32:55 32
15 San Luca 34 6 12 16 37:55 29
16 Locri 1909 34 7 7 20 34:68 28
17 Castrovillari 34 2 12 20 29:76 17
18 Nuova Gioiese 34 3 2 29 18:80 11
19 Lamezia Terme 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 (Play Out)