Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Castrumfavara vs Licata

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Fortunato F.
90' Event
Minacori C.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I game between Castrumfavara and Licata finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Castrumfavara
30%
Draws
47%
Licata
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Licata

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

23% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Castrumfavara come out ahead of Licata on wins alone.
  • 23% — that's where the model lands on Castrumfavara taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Castrumfavara Clean Sheet 20%
Licata Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castrumfavara Licata
Matches Played 34 27
Wins 10 7
Draws 7 4
Losses 17 16
Goals Scored 1.15 1
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Castrumfavara vs Licata
1:1
May 11, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Castrumfavara vs Licata
2:0
Jan 26, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Castrumfavara vs Licata
0:0
Sep 29, 2024 Serie D - Group I
Licata vs Castrumfavara
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castrumfavara Compare

Top Goalscorer Fortunato F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Licata Compare

Top Goalscorer Minacori C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.55

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castrumfavara 85 / 100
Licata 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castrumfavara Licata

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castrumfavara Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castrumfavara's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

Defensive concern: Licata conceded in 74% of 27 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.75 goals per match.

Castrumfavara went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Castrumfavara VS Licata
2.13 Goals Scored 0.86
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 57%
75% Over 2.5 29%
50% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Castrumfavara

(Home)
27 Sept
Castrumfavara
0 : 1
Calcio Avola
20 Sept
ASD Modica Calcio
1 : 0
Castrumfavara
16 Sept
Castrumfavara
1 : 1
Licata
13 Sept
Gela
2 : 1
Castrumfavara
06 Sept
Castrumfavara
3 : 0
Milazzo
Page 1 of 7

Licata

(Away)
26 Sept
Enna
0 : 3
Licata
20 Sept
Licata
1 : 0
USD Ragusa
16 Sept
Castrumfavara
1 : 1
Licata
13 Sept
Licata
1 : 1
Nissa
06 Sept
Reggina
5 : 0
Licata
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Reggina 5 5 0 0 15:0 15
2 Sambiase 5 4 1 0 9:3 13
3 Vibonese 5 3 1 1 13:5 10
4 Igea Virtus 5 3 1 1 13:10 10
5 Digiesse PraiaTortora 5 2 3 0 8:2 9
6 Calcio Avola 5 3 0 2 8:10 9
7 Licata 5 2 2 1 6:7 8
8 Athletic Palermo 5 2 1 2 9:8 7
9 Nissa 5 2 1 2 8:8 7
10 Milazzo 5 2 0 3 4:8 6
11 Siracusa 5 3 2 0 8:4 4
12 Castrumfavara 5 1 1 3 5:5 4
13 ASD Modica Calcio 5 1 1 3 3:5 4
14 Gela 5 1 1 3 4:6 3
15 USD Ragusa 5 0 2 3 4:8 2
16 Lamezia 5 0 2 3 5:13 2
17 Enna 5 0 1 4 0:12 1
18 Trapani 5 1 0 4 2:10 -2
Promotion - Serie D - Group I (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I (Play Out)