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Castrumfavara vs Milazzo Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Chiappetta N.
76' Event
Bellingardo A.
81' Event
Schembari S.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I game between Castrumfavara and Milazzo finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Castrumfavara.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Castrumfavara
15%
Draws
51%
Milazzo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Milazzo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Milazzo come out ahead of Castrumfavara on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Castrumfavara's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Castrumfavara here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Castrumfavara Clean Sheet 68%
Milazzo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castrumfavara Milazzo
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 9 10
Draws 6 5
Losses 17 15
Goals Scored 1.16 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Castrumfavara vs Milazzo
3:0
Jan 18, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Milazzo vs Castrumfavara
1:0
Sep 21, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Castrumfavara vs Milazzo
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castrumfavara Compare

Top Goalscorer Bellingardo A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Schembari S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Milazzo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castrumfavara 95 / 100
Milazzo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castrumfavara Milazzo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castrumfavara Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castrumfavara found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (32 games).

Defensive concern: Milazzo conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.67 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Milazzo has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Castrumfavara VS Milazzo
2 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 38%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Castrumfavara

(Home)
27 Sept
Castrumfavara
0 : 1
Calcio Avola
20 Sept
ASD Modica Calcio
1 : 0
Castrumfavara
16 Sept
Castrumfavara
1 : 1
Licata
13 Sept
Gela
2 : 1
Castrumfavara
06 Sept
Castrumfavara
3 : 0
Milazzo
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Milazzo

(Away)
27 Sept
Athletic Palermo
3 : 0
Milazzo
20 Sept
Milazzo
0 : 1
Sambiase
16 Sept
Enna
0 : 1
Milazzo
13 Sept
Milazzo
3 : 1
USD Ragusa
06 Sept
Castrumfavara
3 : 0
Milazzo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Reggina 5 5 0 0 15:0 15
2 Sambiase 5 4 1 0 9:3 13
3 Vibonese 5 3 1 1 13:5 10
4 Igea Virtus 5 3 1 1 13:10 10
5 Digiesse PraiaTortora 5 2 3 0 8:2 9
6 Calcio Avola 5 3 0 2 8:10 9
7 Licata 5 2 2 1 6:7 8
8 Athletic Palermo 5 2 1 2 9:8 7
9 Nissa 5 2 1 2 8:8 7
10 Milazzo 5 2 0 3 4:8 6
11 Siracusa 5 3 2 0 8:4 4
12 Castrumfavara 5 1 1 3 5:5 4
13 ASD Modica Calcio 5 1 1 3 3:5 4
14 Gela 5 1 1 3 4:6 3
15 USD Ragusa 5 0 2 3 4:8 2
16 Lamezia 5 0 2 3 5:13 2
17 Enna 5 0 1 4 0:12 1
18 Trapani 5 1 0 4 2:10 -2
Promotion - Serie D - Group I (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I (Play Out)