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Castrumfavara vs Nissa

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

87'
Alagna F.
87'
Alagna F.
90' Event
Provenzano A.

AI Match Summary

Nissa in this Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nissa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Castrumfavara
35%
Draws
32%
Nissa
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Nissa have won more games recently than Castrumfavara.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Castrumfavara Clean Sheet 16%
Nissa Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castrumfavara Nissa
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 10 18
Draws 6 8
Losses 15 4
Goals Scored 1.23 1.6
Goals Conceded 1.48 0.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Castrumfavara vs Nissa
0:1
Sep 24, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Nissa vs Castrumfavara
3:2
Feb 16, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Nissa vs Castrumfavara
0:0
Oct 20, 2024 Serie D - Group I
Castrumfavara vs Nissa
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castrumfavara Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Nissa Compare

Top Goalscorer Provenzano A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castrumfavara 31 / 100
Nissa 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castrumfavara Nissa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nissa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castrumfavara has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Castrumfavara scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Nissa let in goals in 47% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Castrumfavara VS Nissa
2 Goals Scored 1.88
1 Goals Conceded 0.38
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Castrumfavara

(Home)
03 May
Castrumfavara
2 : 2
Enna
26 Apr
Paterno
1 : 3
Castrumfavara
19 Apr
Castrumfavara
3 : 1
Gela
12 Apr
Athletic Palermo
0 : 3
Castrumfavara
02 Apr
Castrumfavara
1 : 1
AS Acireale
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Nissa

(Away)
17 May
Nissa
0 : 0
Reggina
10 May
Nissa
4 : 0
Gelbison
03 May
Nissa
4 : 1
Paterno
26 Apr
Sambiase
1 : 1
Nissa
19 Apr
Nissa
3 : 0
Enna
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A.C. Savoia 34 20 9 5 63:29 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 51:27 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 44:23 66
4 Athletic Palermo 34 18 6 10 59:47 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 44:32 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 38:30 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 49:36 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 41:44 43
10 Lamezia 34 11 9 14 43:35 42
11 Castrumfavara 34 10 8 16 38:47 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 50:53 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 32:47 35
14 USD Ragusa 34 7 13 14 23:34 34
15 ACR Messina 34 11 13 10 28:33 32
16 AS Acireale 34 7 12 15 37:50 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 31:49 29
18 Paterno 34 4 7 23 22:72 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Out)