Sport Picks
Castuera vs AD Llerenense Prediction & H2H Stats
Spain
Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 
Match Events
34'
34'
Gonzalez J.
52'
52'
Quintero J.
81'
81'
Cordero A.
AI Match Summary
Castuera in this Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Castuera.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
35%
15%
50%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AD Llerenense
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
50%
/ Medium Confidence
- Castuera haven't matched AD Llerenense's recent run of results.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
- Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Castuera Clean Sheet 28%
AD Llerenense Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Castuera | AD Llerenense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 36 |
| Wins | 8 | 16 |
| Draws | 5 | 9 |
| Losses | 17 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.47 | 1.36 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.9 | 1.11 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.68 | 0.68 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 21, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Castuera vs AD Llerenense
3:1
Nov 10, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs Castuera
2:2
Apr 14, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs Castuera
2:0
Nov 18, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Castuera vs AD Llerenense
6:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Castuera Compare
Top Goalscorer Gonzalez J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Quintero J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.29
Avg xA / game 0.84
AD Llerenense Compare
Top Goalscorer Cordero A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.38
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Castuera 38 / 100
AD Llerenense 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Castuera AD Llerenense
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick AD Llerenense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 4.75 goals when they meet.
Attacking prowess: Castuera scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.
AD Llerenense let in goals in 61% of their last 36 matches.
Castuera has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Castuera VS AD Llerenense
1.6 Goals Scored 0.75
0.6 Goals Conceded 1.75
60% Over 1.5 88%
40% Over 2.5 38%
20% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Castuera
(Home) 27 Sept
Castuera
1 : 0 UP Plasencia
20 Sept
Jerez CF
1 : 2 Castuera
13 Sept
Puebla de la Calzada
2 : 0 Castuera
05 Sept
Castuera
5 : 0 Gevora
31 Aug
Villanovense
3 : 0 Castuera
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Castuera
1 : 0 UP Plasencia
05 Sept
Castuera
5 : 0 Gevora
04 May
Castuera
1 : 2 CF Trujillo
17 Apr
Castuera
1 : 2 Puebla de la Calzada
06 Apr
Castuera
3 : 3 Jaraiz
Page 1 of 3
AD Llerenense
(Away) 27 Sept
CD Zafra
0 : 0 AD Llerenense
19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0 Jaraiz
13 Sept
Villanovense
0 : 1 AD Llerenense
06 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0 Guadiana
09 May
AD Llerenense
3 : 1 CD Calamonte
Page 1 of 8
27 Sept
CD Zafra
0 : 0 AD Llerenense
13 Sept
Villanovense
0 : 1 AD Llerenense
01 May
Puebla de la Calzada
4 : 1 AD Llerenense
19 Apr
Montehermoso
2 : 2 AD Llerenense
03 Apr
Cabeza del Buey
1 : 0 AD Llerenense
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Extremadura | 34 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 73:22 | 75 |
| 2 | CD Azuaga | 34 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 65:28 | 71 |
| 3 | Jaraiz | 34 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 65:40 | 69 |
| 4 | AD Llerenense | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 58:28 | 68 |
| 5 | CD Badajoz | 34 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 54:20 | 63 |
| 6 | CD Diocesano | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 58:38 | 58 |
| 7 | Santa Amalia | 34 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 31:31 | 54 |
| 8 | Jerez CF | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 50:48 | 51 |
| 9 | SP Villafranca | 34 | 14 | 5 | 15 | 55:55 | 47 |
| 10 | Moralo | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 52:50 | 46 |
| 11 | Montijo | 34 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 35:34 | 45 |
| 12 | Pueblonuevo | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42:71 | 36 |
| 13 | CD Calamonte | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 36:48 | 33 |
| 14 | Puebla de la Calzada | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 35:56 | 32 |
| 15 | Castuera | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 46:64 | 29 |
| 16 | CF Trujillo | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 32:63 | 28 |
| 17 | Arroyo | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 32:70 | 22 |
| 18 | Olivenza FC | 34 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 26:79 | 17 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
