Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Caucaia vs Maracana

Brazil Brazil

Copa Fares Lopes 2025 Estádio Municipal Raimundo de Oliveira, Itambe
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Jailson

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-1, with Maracana advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Caucaia
20%
Draws
57%
Maracana
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Maracana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Maracana come out ahead of Caucaia on wins alone.
  • Maracana are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Maracana arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Maracana, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Caucaia Clean Sheet 19%
Maracana Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caucaia Maracana
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 13
Draws 5 6
Losses 16 11
Goals Scored 0.93 1
Goals Conceded 1.47 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 9, 2025 Copa Fares Lopes
Caucaia vs Maracana
0:1
Jan 14, 2023 Cearense
Maracana vs Caucaia
1:0
Feb 19, 2022 Cearense
Maracana vs Caucaia
1:1
Jan 27, 2022 Cearense
Caucaia vs Maracana
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caucaia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Maracana Compare

Top Goalscorer Jailson
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caucaia 12 / 100
Maracana 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caucaia Maracana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maracana Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caucaia scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Maracana conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.25 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Caucaia stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Caucaia VS Maracana
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Caucaia

(Home)
17 May
Caucaia
1 : 2
Guarani de Juazeiro
13 May
Caucaia
1 : 1
Atletico Cearense
10 May
Itapipoca
0 : 1
Caucaia
02 May
Caucaia
1 : 4
Guarany SC
18 Apr
Crateus
3 : 0
Caucaia
Page 1 of 6

Maracana

(Away)
27 Jun
Maracana
0 : 1
Imperatriz
20 Jun
Imperatriz
1 : 1
Maracana
07 Jun
Maracana
2 : 0
IAPE
30 May
Moto Club
1 : 2
Maracana
24 May
Parnahyba
0 : 1
Maracana
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Fortaleza B 4 1 3 0 5:4 6
2 Itapipoca 4 1 2 1 6:5 5
3 Ferroviario 4 1 2 1 4:4 5
4 Quixada 4 1 2 1 2:3 5
5 Atletico Cearense 4 1 1 2 4:5 4
Promotion - Copa Fares Lopes 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Fares Lopes 2025 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ceara B 4 3 0 1 7:3 9
2 Tirol 4 3 0 1 5:1 9
3 Maracana 4 3 0 1 4:1 9
4 Vila Real 4 1 0 3 3:7 3
5 Caucaia 4 0 0 4 2:9 0
Promotion - Copa Fares Lopes 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Fares Lopes 2025 (Play Offs)